Memorandum: No. 037-M

The Predator Unmanned Aerial Vehicle system was developed as an Advanced Concept Technology Demonstration and subsequently demonstrated its military utility in a number of exercises and operational deployments. The Predator program is now transitioning to a Department of Defense Directive 5000.1 formal acquisition program.

The report describes modeling and simulation uses in many levels of the ACTD program including reconnaissance architecture analyses that provided manned and unmanned system (including Predator) force mix options; Predator participation as a “virtual” system in numerous operational exercises; and its use to analyze performance parameters, conduct system tradeoffs, and evaluate potential system changes and improvements.

One of the recent modeling and simulation efforts was an event-driven simulation conducted to help identify factors that might affect Predator's ability to meet a requirement of continuous 24-hour presence over the battlefield. The model assumed a four-air vehicle system tasked to maintain continuous coverage at various ranges. Failures affecting the mission were injected into the simulation based on ACTD-derived data and projected system reliability, including noncritical scheduled and unscheduled maintenance actions. “This modeling of Predator operations will be a key in the test and evaluation of the Predator as it transitions to a fielded system,” said DARO's Lt. Col. T.E. Dailey.

Dailey credited modeling and simulation as a direct contributor to managing costs in all aspects of the ACTD by predicting operational effectiveness in conjunction with abbreviated operational assessments, assessing system performance, determining optimum system configuration, and assessing alternative force structure options. “We have been learning a great deal about this new endurance capability. In the case of Predator, from ACTD to initial production, modeling and simulation have been key in acquisition reform as it allows thorough examination of performance before funds are committed,” Dailey said.

The RQ-1A Predator is operated by the Air Force's 11th Reconnaissance Squadron, based at Indian Springs, Nev. A detachment is deployed with one Predator system to Taszar, Hungary in support of Operation Joint Guard (formerly Joint Endeavor).

News media may obtain a copy of this report by contacting Lt. Col. Joan Ferguson, Directorate for Defense Information, (703) 695-0192. Others should contact Public Communications at (703) 697-5737. It is also available at: http://www.acq.osd.mil/daro.

Printer-friendly Version

Email A Copy