The Institute for National Strategic Studies of the National
Defense University today issued its Strategic Assessment 1997:
Flashpoints and Force Structure. The annual strategic assessment
identifies potential flashpoints the United States may face over
the coming decade, the military missions these threats imply, and
the force structure options for fulfilling those missions. It
was prepared by a 25-member team of civilian and military fellows
and is an independent analysis rather than a statement of
official U.S. government policy.
The main conclusions are:
Major Powers: The challenge for Washington is to persuade
Russia and China that cooperative participation in the
international community best serves their interests, while
dissuading them from settling disputes by force. This requires
the maintenance of a U.S. military capability that will
discourage them from investing the resources to become future
opponents.
Regional Contingencies: The regional conflicts most likely
to involve the U.S. military directly remain those in Korea and
the Persian Gulf. While the United States faces an increasing
risk of nuclear, biological, and chemical attack early in a
conflict, the scope and scale of the regional contingencies
threat is diminishing. As a result, the two nearly simultaneous
Major Regional Contingencies concept is a less useful primary
planning scenario in 1997 than it was in 1993.
Troubled States and Transitional Problems: Internal unrest
and extreme human rights violations can be expected during the
next decade. U.S. forces may be called upon to intervene. A
growing threat comes from transnational problems like terrorism
and international crime. While most of the response will be from
civilian authorities, the military will become increasingly
involved.
MILITARY MISSIONS
Dealing With Theater Peers. Conflict with a theater peer,
such as China or Russia would differ significantly from conflict
with a rogue state such as Iran, Iraq, or North Korea. The
theater peer would possess a nuclear option. Incorporating
technology and concepts from the revolution in military affairs
(RMA) will be especially useful to thwart the military ambitions
of a theater peer.
Maintaining The Capability To Defeat A Rogue Regime. The
U.S. must be prepared to defeat a rogue regime in a major
regional conflict , while successfully deterring and preparing to
defeat a second such regime. The United States must be prepared
to defend and liberate territory by using heavy ground-maneuver
units under risk of nuclear, biological, and chemical weapons
attack. It must also be prepared to operate in concert with ad
hoc coalitions, in which some participants contribute substantial
military assets while others are represented more for their
political effect.
U.S. Role in Peace Operations. The main U.S. role in peace
operations will be to provide support forces. The U.S. also
needs trained ground forces able to deploy on short notice and an
efficient method to work with law enforcement, both in troubled
states and in international operations countering terrorism and
drug trafficking
FORCE STRUCTURE OPTIONS
The Recapitalization Force Model. An excellent force but
with some reductions in force structure to finance the
recapitalization of equipment as it becomes obsolete.
The Accelerated Revolution in Military Affairs (RMA) Force
Model. Integrates systems technologies and radically changes the
force structure to take full advantage of the new capabilities.
The Full Spectrum Force Model. Keeps most of the current
force while experimenting with RMA technologies and creating an
on call capability to deal with operations other than war,
requiring a higher budget than the other two forces.
For more information about Strategic Assessment 1997, call
its senior editor, INSS Director Hans Binnendijk, at (202) 685-
3838, or the editor, Patrick Clawson, at (202) 685-2217. Copies
are on sale to the public through GPO bookstores.
