Under Secretary of Defense for Acquisition and Technology Paul G. Kaminski
today announced the conclusions of a congressionally-directed "Heavy Bomber
Force Study" for the Department of Defense.
Based upon the results of the FY 95 Heavy Bomber Force Study, which includes
the Institute for Defense Analyses (IDA) cost-effectiveness analyses, DoD
concluded the following:
The planned force can meet the national security requirements of two
nearly-simultaneous major regional contingencies (MRCs) for anticipated
scenarios and reasonable excursions.
Additional quantities of accurate guided munitions shown to be more cost
effective than procuring an additional 20 B-2s for the baseline two-MRC
conventional scenario and reasonable excursions (further study required to
determine best weapons mix).
The planned bomber force with accurate guided munitions provides a prudent
hedge against excursions from the baseline scenario.
Planned conventional mission upgrades to the B-1 bomber force are shown to be
more cost effective than procuring additional B-2s.
Kaminski said the results of the bomber requirements study argue favorably and
soundly for continuing the Department's initiatives to acquire modern
conventional capabilities for the heavy bomber force. Those initiatives
include continuing development and production of 20 B-2 aircraft, the B-1B
conventional mission upgrade program, and the B-52H conventional mission
enhancement program.
The study was completed by IDA using mandated scenarios involving two
nearly-simultaneous major regional contingencies (MRCs) in the years 1998,
2006, and 2014. As a federally funded research and development center, IDA's
intellectual expertise and its highly respected modeling and simulation
analytical tools were well suited to perform the study.
An Office of the Secretary of Defense steering group, led by Kaminski, provided
direction and oversight for conducting the study. Five realistic alternative
bomber forces were selected for comparison. The cost of these forces and the
capabilities they provide were the subject of the IDA analysis.
The FY 95 Heavy Bomber Force Study is the most comprehensive, indepth
analytical review performed to date that is focused on the use of three heavy
bombers in the conventional warfighting role. This study is the intellectual
cornerstone for building a highly effective conventional bomber force for the
next century.
Kaminski said that IDA used the Defense Planning Guidance scenarios for the two
MRC analyses. The Joint Staff and the Services provided force arrival
information and aircraft apportionment and sortie allocation data based on
current war plans. The analysis was done using three different force-level or
campaign computer models: a bomber force model developed by IDA; the TACWAR
model used by the Joint Staff and CINCs; and THUNDER, a detailed Air Force
campaign mode. Threat projections were provided by the Defense Intelligence
Agency and reviewed by the intelligence community.
"Because the bomber requirements study concludes that our planned forces with
20 B-2 aircraft are sufficient for the anticipated scenarios," Kaminski
explained, "I plan to re-evaluate the decision to allocate funds for preserving
the B-2 production base. Those funds may be used more effectively by
reallocating them to needed weapons, or bomber conventional upgrade
programs."
Kaminski said that DoD would continue the ongoing bomber industrial base study
and that a final decision on reallocating B-2 production base preservation
funds would be made after July 1, 1995, the date the report is expected to be
finished. The Under Secretary reported that he plans to initiate a study to
further evaluate both the quantity and mix of accurate guided weapons needed to
meet the requirements of the two-MRC anticipated scenarios and reasonable
excursions.
