WRIGHT-PATTERSON AIR FORCE BASE, Ohio, May 17, 2006 – The Air Force has a new tool in its acquisition arsenal, one which allows decision makers to better evaluate risks involved before starting up or changing weapon system programs.

Aeronautical Systems Center helped develop that tool – called the Probability of Program Success model – and has already begun deploying it to acquisition wings, groups and squadrons.

Brig. Gen. David Eichhorn, Aeronautical Systems Center vice commander, said the model is designed to give program managers a better handle on risks by highlighting all elements that contribute to program success.

"We have to remember that there's more to a successful program than just the mission," he said. "We also have to consider business aspects and what higher headquarters, warfighters and Congress want from us."

Steve Miller, Aeronautical Systems Center director of acquisition excellence, said the tool also gives acquisition commanders a better look at risks for their entire portfolio

and will help discussions between the Air Force acquisition community and decision-makers who want to start up or make major changes to programs.

"Aeronautical Systems Center has done other kinds of risk management on its acquisition programs for a long time," Miller said. "For example, we hold risk workshops with program teams to help them develop their acquisition strategy, looking at decisions like the type of contract to be used, development time frame, technology incorporation and staffing."

"Our financial management and engineering experts also help with annual, integrated risk assessments," he noted.

Aeronautical Systems Center's Acquisition Center of Excellence, part of Miller's team, is often involved in this second process that examines current and/or historical risks to program cost, schedule and performance, as well as potential solutions.

"This new tool takes a predictive rather than historical approach," Miller said, adding that it's based on five major factors: resources, program execution, requirements, program advocacy at all levels of decision-making up through the Joint Staff and Congress, and how the program fits into Air Force and Department of Defense visions.