Senior Defense Official SDO: Hello, everybody. So let me just level set here for what we're trying to do. I have said, and you've heard me say it for a while, if Russia invades Ukraine, again, that this is their war, it's Mr. Putin's war. [Omitted]
And so what I'm trying to do here, in a ‘Senior Defense Official’ attribution setting, is try to provide you as much context as I can, but also, quite frankly, to level set with you about your expectations of the knowledge we are going to have. Even off the record and on background, there's going to be a limit to how much we know and how much we can say.
So what I'm trying to do here before I go to the podium is try to answer your questions as best I can, and I will do that. I’ve got (Senior Defense Official #2) with me for a reason. I asked him to be here because [Omitted] obviously has a fine fidelity of operational information and he'll keep me honest. But there's going to be -- there are limits to what we know.
And if, in fact, they invade again, it's very likely that our knowledge will actually decrease because we simply aren't going to have the ability to see everything and to know everything. So all that is a pre-text. I'm just trying to level set expectations here.
I know you all are getting pressed by your outlets and by your bosses to report out of here. I totally get that because, in essence, right, this is a potential military story, but it is not a U.S. military story, with the exception of the stuff we're doing to reassure our allies and our partners. And you saw we put out a statement yesterday to provide more context on the moves that the president announced. We will continue to do that on the record as openly as we can -- our reassurance posture.
But when it comes to Russian military moves, again, I just want to foot stomp this, I'm asking you to please keep your expectations at a nominal level because we aren't going to have that level of fidelity. That said, I know what's been in the media space. I don't have any other opening statement, other than that hugely caveated ‘don't expect much of me’ statement, so we'll take whatever questions you got on your mind. Lita?
Q: Well, do you want me to get to --
SDO: Get to whatever you want to, Lita.
Q: I was going to say, just get the hard one out of the way. Thank you. So tell us what you think you know and what you think you can about how far, if any, Russian troops have moved out of Luhansk and Donetsk, if they've moved into other portions of Ukraine? Can you just table that?
(CROSSTALK)
SDO: -- let me try to give you a lay down. I would say a couple of things, Lita. First, to your point on the Donetsk and Luhansk, we still cannot confirm that Russian military forces have moved in to the Donbass areas. I know you all have seen social media video and we've seen it too. We can't make our assessments just based on social media footage and cellphone stuff, right? We have to ‘know-know,’ and even as recently as just this morning because I knew this question was going to come up. We cannot confirm that Russian military forces have -- additional Russian military forces have moved into the eastern part of Ukraine and into that Donbass region. That's one.
Number two, I would tell you that we assess that the Russian military forces arrayed around Ukraine and in Belarus are as ready as they can be. We would assess that about 80% of their forces are in what we would consider forward positions, ready to go. The secretary, the other day in Lithuania, said that they are uncoiling. Today, they are uncoiled.
Those positions range from pretty close to the border, as little as five kilometers, all the way out to 50. It depends on the unit. It depends on what their objectives would be. It depends a lot on the geography, the topography. So I think there's an unfortunate common notion that, you know, when we say they're in ready positions that they're all, like, poised right at the border. That's not the case. It depends on what units they are and what their orders are, what they're ready to do. Did that answer your question?
Q: Oh god, no. But close enough.
(Laughter.)
SDO: As I said, expectations should be low.
Q: On that, we keep hearing the word imminent. You're talking about, you know, as ready as they can be. What looks -- what today is different than yesterday? What are you seeing today that you didn't see two days ago?
SDO: So it's a cumulative process, Lita. It's not linear. It's not like you take every day in 24-hour chunks and say, okay, we have indications, indications based on intelligence. Obviously, I'm not going to get into that in too much detail. But also, quite frankly, plain sight indications from satellite imagery to, you know, what we're seeing as well out in the information environment that they have advanced their readiness to a point where they are literally ready to go now if they get the order to go. So it's based on a lot of factors. Jen?
Q: What is the most worrisome new development that you have seen? Is there anything surprising that has been put into the field that you weren't expecting to see?
SDO: I wouldn't say that we are surprised by any one capability. I think what continues to give us concern is the full range of capabilities that Mr. Putin has at his disposal right now, everything from significant offensive missile capability to offensive ground power.
He has more than two dozen warships in the Black Sea. The majority of them are surface combatants. He has cruise missile capability. He's got ballistic missile capability arrayed. He's got armor, artillery, certainly infantry. He's got special forces. And we assessed today that he is near 100% of all the forces that we anticipated that he would move in. He is dang near at 100%.
Q: Did he send those hypersonic weapons back after the exercise?
SDO: I don't have information on that.
Q: And with regards to the Navy, there were some reports yesterday about these anti-aircraft missiles being positioned -- arrayed, three Russian ships countering the USS Harry S. Truman as well as some French and other aircraft carrier groups. Is that something you're concerned about? Are you in some sort of naval standoff right now with Russia?
SDO: We would not characterize it as a naval standoff. I don't have any information on their anti-ship missiles and what they have onboard. They continue to have a fairly moderate level of naval activity in the Eastern Med, not, quite frankly, not as much as what they have in the Black Sea. They're obviously monitoring the Truman. That is not unusual, but it is only that. It is not -- the Truman and her strike group aren't being shadowed by an overwhelming number of Russian surface combatants. It's classic intelligence monitoring of U.S. naval activity. It's the same stuff that I experienced when I was a young ensign, it's the same kind of thing. But they have definitely increased their naval presence in the Med and in the Black Sea. It's more moderate in the Med than it is in the Black Sea.
And I think, you know, look, if you're planning an invasion of Ukraine and you're encircling that country to make sure you can conduct that invasion effectively, then obviously, Black Sea naval forces are going to be important to you, not only from a perspective of being able to put troops ashore, and not quite half of the vessels he has in the Black Sea are landing ships, but also from a long-range fires perspective, you know, being able to actually put ordnance on target from the sea, which he has the ability to do. Did that answer your question?
Q: Yes, thank you.
SDO: Barb?
Q: Two things. To follow up on the amphib, are you able to say whether you believe or assess he's planning an amphibious landing at all, perhaps around Odessa or other places? And can you talk a little bit about the air picture? How do you begin to make the decisions that you will no longer fly both manned reconnaissance and/or drones over specifically Ukraine air space, and even ratchet back nearby, where you may be concerned? How do you begin to, in the coming hours, come to that decision? Can you just kind of lay it out?
SDO: Yeah. I'm going to be careful here because we don't, even on background, get in the habit of talking about how we collect intelligence. We will continue to try to have as much visibility as we can for as long as we can. The safety of our aircrews is obviously going to be paramount, and to our assets as well, because not all assets are manned. And we'll do as much as we can, as long as we can. I'm not going to get into predictive analysis of what orbits are going to look like going forward. A lot of it, Barb, just depends on what Mr. Putin decides to do, and if he goes in a big way and he's able to own and manipulate the airspace, obviously that's going to change a lot of our calculus. How, I'm simply not prepared to speak to today.
As for your other question on amphibious landings, I mean, again, I go back to my answer to Lita. I can't brief out a Russian military plan, but you know, we have eyes and we have ears, and we see that he has more than 10 landing ships in the Black Sea, and those ships exist for one reason, and that's to put boots on the ground.
(CROSSTALK)
SDO: We have to assume that.
Q: One other very quick. Can you tell us what the current state is of U.S.-Russian mil-to-mil communications? Is anybody -- do you want to talk to them? Is anybody talking to them? Are they taking your calls? Are they refusing your calls? Is there any friction?
SDO: There has been quite a bit of direct communication with Russian counterparts.
Q: (inaudible)
SDO: Gen. Milley has spoken, I don't know how many times to Gerasimov, and --
Q: (inaudible)
SDO: If you're talking about de-confliction, I -- go ahead.
Q: Well, yes, but I mean like in the last 48 hours, and even today. I don't mean (inaudible).
SDO: I don't have any direct communications. And (SDO #2), unless I'm missing something from [Omitted]?
Q: I guess I'm asking are communications lines open? Do you have any indication they're refusing to speak to you?
SDO: No, but I also don't have any offers to speak to, either. We have been -- the secretary's been in touch with Minister Shoygu several times. The chairman has had even more engagements with Gen. Gerasimov.
Q: Has Gen. Gerasimov refused Gen. Milley's calls?
SDO: I would defer to the Joint Staff. Yeah. But look, I mean, I also wouldn't -- I'm not going to rule out potential for communications going forward. A lot of this is going to depend on what the Russians do. Yeah, Court? I'll come back to you.
Q: Is it still fair to say that the preponderance of analysis here in the building, the U.S. military intelligence, whatever, is that Russia is -- Putin is planning a large-scale or full-scale invasion? Is that still the assessment here?
SDO: It is our assessment that he is fully prepared to conduct a large-scale invasion, and that that is a likely option.
Q: Okay, but is it -- there was some reporting a couple of days ago, I can't remember when it was, saying that it was actually the assessment that he had made the decision, and that it was a large-scale invasion, not necessarily full-scale. And I don't remember, really know the difference at this point, but like -- pardon me?
Q: What's the difference?
Q: Yeah, I don't even really understand the difference, frankly, but I guess what I'm wondering is if anything has changed from your perspective; if you still think he's -- or the assessment is he's still --
SDO: Nothing has changed from our perspective.
Q: Just so I know. Okay, thank you.
SDO: But I would add if ever we wanted to be wrong, we want to be wrong about this.
Q: Is there a difference between large-scale and full-scale?
(CROSSTALK)
SDO: I don't know. I don't think that's a doctrinal term.
(CROSSTALK)
SDO: Please don't read too much into those adjectives. Yeah, go ahead.
Q: So you talked about Mediterranean and Black Sea. Just in between that you have Turkey, of course. Has there been any communication between -- from this department with the Turks? And is there anything that you expect? Because we have seen that you have increased the (inaudible).
SDO: Well, we noted that Turkey came out pretty strongly against Mr. Putin's declaration that he was going to declare independent Luhansk and Donetsk, and that was a welcome statement to hear from Turkey. I don't have any specific communications to read out to -- from the department with Turkey. I don't know if [Omitted] has done anything, (SDO #2), specifically with Turkey?
(CROSSTALK)
SDO: So there could be potential to communicate. I don't have anything on the secretary's schedule to read out to you. Yeah, let me get -- just keep moving around.
Q: Can you just say, what did the defense secretary agree to in terms of providing defensive weapons to Ukraine's foreign minister yesterday?
SDO: It was a good discussion. They clearly did talk about not only the aid that we have provided, but the secretary made it clear that we would continue to look for ways to provide lethal and nonlethal assistance to Ukrainian armed forces going forward.
Q: But there wasn't a specific agreement?
SDO: No, the meeting was not intended to ink a specific agreement. Remember that the foreign minister is not the secretary's counterpart, so this was not designed to ink some sort of formal agreement. But the secretary did commit, as the president has committed, that we'll continue to look for ways to -- to provide lethal and nonlethal assistance to Ukraine.
Q: Thank you.
SDO: Yeah. Abraham?
Q: Yeah, thanks, SDO. A couple questions. Can you confirm the Newsweek reporting about the 48 hours that Zelensky has been informed that there’s going to be an invasion --
SDO: I'm not going to talk about specific communications that we've had with Ukraine. I would say -- I'd go back to my answer to Lita -- we believe that he, Mr. Putin, and his forces are as ready as they can be. And as I said, they have uncoiled and they are ready to go.
Q: And then also, you talked a bit about the ships in the Black Sea. Is there -- are they -- can you talk about how they're spread out? Are they closer to Odessa or Mariupol, Iziaslav --
SDO: No, this is where the expectation management comes in. The thing about ships is they move, and every hour, they can move, they'll be at a different place. I'm not going to get into specific geospatial latitude and longitude of where the ships are.
Q: My final question -- you talked about -- so the continuation of defense assistance to Ukraine -- if Ukrainian airspace is closed, how will we get further defense assistance to them?
SDO: There are different ways you can help provide support and we're exploring those ways, in case air transport is not possible. David?
Q: You know, a lot of us have crews in Ukraine, mostly in the east and in Kyiv. From what you're seeing on the likely angles of attack, is there any useful information you could give us that we could pass on to Belarus?
(18:21) SDO: Can I go off the record with everybody right now? And that includes those that are on the phone.
*NOTE: Off-the-record conversation commenced.
(22:38) SDO: Sylvie?
UNKNOWN: Back on the record?
SDO: Well, it depends on the question. And this was never on the record.
UNKNOWN: Or, I’m sorry, back on background?
Q: Yeah, it's on background please. You said you cannot confirm that there are new troops. Is it based on the fact that they don't have any marks on their vehicles or it's just --
SDO: It's truly back to what I said before. The limits, this is back on background. Thank you. It's based on the limits of our ability to understand and to see everything. We just cannot independently confirm those reports. We've seen the social media posts as well as you but they are, by themselves, not necessarily -- we can't just deem that as 100% credible, just based on it being out there. So --
Q: Because of the nature of the vehicles that you can see on these videos, I mean, it's pretty big armament, it's –
SDO: Right. Sylvie, I'm giving you the best answer I can. Again, back to my caveat at the beginning, there's going to be a limit to our knowledge and I'm being as honest with you as I can, based on what I saw this morning. We simply cannot confirm that additional Russian forces have moved in. We’re not disputing, just saying we can't independently confirm that and I'm not going to go out there with stuff that we're not sure about. Tom?
Q: SDO, I’m not sure if you already addressed this. The cyberattacks that we're seeing today I guess hit some websites. Is this similar to what we saw last week? Is it more extensive? And any sense that military communications have been hit?
SDO: No sense that military comms have been hit yet. There's more sites that were attacked than were a couple of weeks ago, Tom. It's certainly of a piece of their playbook but we haven't been able to ascribe attribution specifically at this time. But, I mean, it's obviously very much in keeping with their playbook. Eric?
Q: Hi, SDO. So when you say 100% of the forces you expected to be there are now in place, is that --
SDO: Almost 100.
Q: Is that the 190,000 number either in --
SDO: Yes, I’d want to stay from specific numbers of troops. We still believe it's north of 150,000. And I would say it's north of 120 battalion tactical groups.
Q: Okay. And then, how many do you assess were already in Donetsk and Luhansk prior to this? How many Russian forces were already there?
SDO: It's difficult to know perfectly because, as you know Eric, they had a lot of separatists that come and go, right? So, I don't have a good number for you on that. I don't.
Q: Thousands though?
SDO: I don't know and I don't want to guess. I don't. What I can try to do though, Eric, is see if we can find that out in a rough form.
Q: Or do you have it, do you know?
(UNKNOWN): I don't have it.
SDO: Yes, so we can try to find out for you. I just don't want to guess because when I start guessing at numbers that's when I get into trouble. Mike?
Q: Do you have an idea, a rough estimate of the percentage of Russia's armed forces that are actually -- have been moved from wherever they were to -- that are actually surrounding Ukraine?
SDO: Yes, I said it a little bit earlier. We assess right now that 80% of their forces arrayed around Ukraine have moved into what we would consider forward positions.
Q: That's 80% in total of the --
SDO: 80% – 80% --
Q: Order of battle
SDO: 80% has moved into ready positions.
Q: And also, have you ever figured out what the ‘Z’ marking that's been spotted on -- there's a giant ‘Z’ that's been spotted on a number of the Russian BMPs and tanks that have been rolling through there. Have you all -- and there's been some question on if it signifies anything.
SDO: The last letter of the alphabet. I don't know.
Q: (Inaudible) forces or something (inaudible)?
SDO: I don't know. I've --
Q: (SDO #2), do you know?
SDO: I just asked him, he doesn’t know.
Q: I have a couple of questions. You said couple of times that the DOD cannot confirm independently whether Russian forces have moved into the --
SDO: I said, ‘additional Russian forces into Luhansk and Donetsk.’
Q: So, but yesterday the president and other officials, when he announced the sanctions, he said, this is the beginning of Russian invasion.
SDO: Yes.
Q: So, did the invasion start or no?
SDO: Yes, we believe it did. But I just am not in a position to confirm.
Q: Okay, I mean, if you can't verify whether additional troops went in, how can you say there's an invasion?
SDO: We -- I'm not -- I can't get into the -- I don't know numbers. And we've seen the activity, but I don't know the numbers. And they were already there and they have -- and they have increased their operations inside eastern Ukraine.
Q: You mean they’ve been there since 2014?
SDO: Yes, there's been Russian forces there since 2014.
Q: Yes. And on another issue, you said that Putin is ready now, but has he made the -- based on your assessment again, has he made the decision to do like a full-scale invasion?
SDO: I don't actually 100% know what Mr. Putin will do. We believe he has made the decision to invade.
Q: He has made the decision?
SDO: Yes. The president has said that. Secretary Austin has said that. What I've said earlier today is that he is as ready as he can be. They are absolutely, to use the sports analogy, a football analogy, they're in a three-point stance and they're ready to go. Now, whether they actually go or not is really up to Mr. Putin. When they could go? They could go at any hour now. Okay? Nick Schifrin?
Q: Thank you, SDO. I've got one specific one and then I'd like to go off the record for one more after that. Specific simple question, do you guys have a sign or assessment or new intelligence that the order has been given?
SDO: I think I just answered that, Nick. We believe that he has made his decision to go and that they are postured and about as ready as they can be. And I think I'm just going to leave it at that.
Q: Okay. And then I know you don't -- you're not going to talk about the intelligence shared with Ukraine but I'll give you just two points of data, and if you could respond. A senior Ukrainian official tells me U.S. delivered new information to Kyiv yesterday morning, highlighting the threat in the next 48 hours, which means the next few hours, frankly, and a NATO official tells me that there was new intelligence briefed just a few hours ago in Brussels that there's a lot of fear about the next few hours. So I'll just give you those data points. I assume you're going to say the same thing but is there anything you could respond to on those beats?
SDO: -- specific intelligence, Nick, but I would point you back to what I've said here before. He is as ready as he can be. We have been saying "any day now" and it is certainly possible that today is that day.
(30:04) Q: And then same thing that David asked off the record –
*NOTE: Off-the-record conversation commenced.
(30:23) SDO: Okay. Dan Lamothe?
Q: Hey, good afternoon. Thanks for your time. I wanted to see what -- what you might be able to say about shifts with the 82nd and other things the Americans are doing on the opposite side of the border -- humanitarian assistance, staging, those sorts of things? Thanks.
SDO: Yeah, as we've said many times, one of the missions that the 82nd will be capable of doing and prepared to do is evacuation assistance. So we're back on background. And they're postured to do that at several locations in Poland, not right up on the border but near the border, and working in lockstep with Polish authorities and the State Department. We have not seen any significant numbers of American citizens crossing that border to date. Now, that could change, we don't know. Hopefully they all took the advice of the State Department and the president and left Ukraine. So they are, as of today, not seeing numbers of any significance, but they are postured and ready to assist if needed.
Q: A follow-on question? How do you think the mission for the 173rd and whoever ends up in the Baltics is -- is similar or dissimilar as that mission in Poland?
SDO: I mean, obviously, one of the things the military is good at doing is humanitarian assistance and evacuation support. If that's a mission that's assigned to them, they'll be able to contribute to that. But largely, the mission that they're being assigned in the Balts is one of reassurance -- joint training, improvement of defensive capabilities up there. Phil Stewart?
Q: Thanks. Could you just give us any sense about what the U.S. military may be doing in these remaining hours to help prepare Ukraine for, you know, all of the kind of high end capabilities that Russia will bring to bear, from -- from jamming to, you know, electronic -- other kinds of electronic warfare and cyber -- everything else that the U.S. might be doing in these last hours? Thanks.
SDO: We have, again, continued to provide security assistance to Ukraine, Phil. The president has been very clear there's not going to be a U.S. troop presence in Ukraine, fighting in Ukraine. We have, in addition to lethal and non-lethal security assistance to Ukraine, we have helped them in the cyber domain and we stand ready to continue to support in that regard if needed. Carla Babb?
Q: Hey, thanks for doing this. I'm so sorry but I still just don't understand how the U.S. government can call this an invasion when they cannot tell us whether or not additional Russian troops have crossed across that border. And I understand that we should limit expectations but I think that's a pretty big thing. I mean, that's a pretty big thing we need to know. So if you could just give us any more on that, on when maybe we might get to know that and get that confirmed?
And then secondly, for what the U.S. is doing for NATO, you know, we saw the announcement about going to the Baltics -- of touting going to the Baltics but that's Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania. Are they getting split up between the Baltics or are they going to one specific country? And can we find out what that country is and where those F-35s specifically are going, not just the Baltics? Is there a reason why we can't get the country, like we've been given in every other instance when we've had additional deployments and movements? Thanks.
SDO: It's not that we're trying to be Machiavellian here. The decisions about where all of these additional elements are going to go belong to Gen. Wolters. So I would encourage you to reach out EUCOM. And as for the question about the additional Russian military, we're not disputing it. And we've seen the indications that they provided more forces there. Nobody's disputing that. What we're saying is we can't confirm it with any specificity. So there's no daylight here, there's no gap. We do believe that, with those moves, that a new invasion had begun. We're not disputing that at all, I'm just saying that I can't confirm with specificity how many and where and where they're going.
Q: But you can confirm that there have been some troops that have crossed into Eastern Ukraine?
SDO: I’m not going to dispute the accounts that additional forces have been going. What I'm saying here is -- maybe it's getting -- we're getting wrapped up in the verb "confirm." I cannot confirm with specificity but we're not disputing that they have moved.
Q: So you can't confirm that there's been troop movement or the number of troops? Because these are two different things.
(CROSSTALK)
At the beginning, your statement, SDO, you were clear that "we cannot confirm --"
SDO: Cannot confirm that additional Russian forces have moved in. That is true. We're not disputing that and we are working under the assumption that, in fact, it has happened, but we cannot confirm it.
Q: So how can you -- I mean, to say there's an invasion, you have to be able to basically present evidence that troops went in. Because the president yesterday wasn't talking about invasion that happened long time ago and is still going on, he said "this is the beginning of an invasion." So something happened on the ground. Can you verify that or no?
(CROSSTALK)
SDO: I've answered the question, Fadi. I'm not going to -- I've answered the question. Meghann?
Q: The troops in Poland, Hungary, and then the aircraft that are moving into the Baltics and into the southeastern flank, how are they spending their days, outside of perhaps the 82nd preparing for evacuees? What is the plan for them once they've landed these F-35s in whichever country? What are they going to do?
SDO: They're there for reassurance and deterrence capabilities. They'll be doing -- I have no doubt they'll be doing the joint training with the host nation and, you know, flying training missions and staying in the air, staying ready, staying sharp.
Q: Okay, so no -- but nothing specific about what they're looking for or I guess what they're -- like, when I say "spending their days", like, are they just going to be cleaning their equipment and doing routine training flights like they would be doing if they were back at home? Or are they going to be going out and doing anything with the troops that are already there, aside from just, like, hanging out? That's what we've been asking this whole time.
SDO: No, I mean, it's not about hanging out, and these additional forces are going to be working on readiness. And so I think you're going to see them, obviously, overtly looking for training opportunities. Yeah? Yeah, I already got you. Tony?
Q: A couple things. The -- the nuclear -- over the weekend they did -- they exercised their nuclear weapons, or they said they were going to. Is there any indication that the command-and-control down to the tactical level, nuclear -- Russia nuclear weapons has been degraded or there's concerns about that? Within the building here.
SDO: Has there been -- say it again?
Q: Is there any indication or concern within the Pentagon that the command-and-control down to the tactical nuclear weapon of Russian forces has been degraded or there's uncertainty, i.e., is there concern that a rogue unit may launch a tactical nuke, if they're concerned or scared?
SDO: Oh, geez, Tony. I --
Q: Well, that's what I'm asking you.
SDO: I know of no concerns that their command-and-control is at all compromised.
Q: Okay. The 80% question -- did you mean to say 80% of Russia's naval, ground and conventional air forces has clustered now for potential invasion? Uncoiled for a potential invasion?
SDO: 80% of their total forces are now what we would consider in a ready position. The bulk of that 80% are obviously ground -- on the ground.
Q: Okay. One other line, you tempered expectations, but if an invasion takes place, your knowledge will degrade about what's going on -- on the ground. I've got to ask you, we've spent billions of dollars on these national technical means that NRO and NSA have up there in the sky, in space. Are you saying those will be degraded? Or you just can't talk about what's gathered from those national technical means?
SDO: Intelligence is a mosaic of lots of different sources, Tony. I'm not saying that we're not going to have any visibility. I'm just saying that our ability to know perfectly is going to diminish. I think I'll leave it at that.
Q: Fair enough, thanks.
SDO: Tara Copp?
Q: Thanks, SDO. Is it the Pentagon's assessment now that Russia's intent is to take the entire country of Ukraine? And then I have two additional questions. Do you have a total amount of weapons and defensive capabilities that the U.S. has now provided to Ukraine? And then last, do you have any assessment with the State Department on how many U.S. citizens remain in Ukraine? Thanks.
SDO: I don't know about U.S. citizens. That's a question for the State Department. Hopefully, there are none. We have and will continue to avoid specific numbers of everything that's been provided to Ukraine, at least by category. I think that you can understand why we don't think that's a good thing to have out in the public. But I would remind that over just the last year alone we've given $650 million-worth of assistance to Ukraine, and we're continuing to look for ways to do that, and that's both lethal and nonlethal. And then you had another one. I can't remember the other one.
Q: The last one: Is it the Pentagon's assessment now that Russia's intent is to take the entire country of Ukraine?
SDO: The assessment is that he is preparing for, another, in this case, a major invasion of Ukraine. Nothing we have seen has dissuaded us from that assessment. Again, we hope we're wrong. As for his political objectives, that is a question better put to Mr. Putin. He made it very clear in his speech the other day that he does not recognize Ukraine's sovereignty. He does not recognize their right to exist as a separate state. And I think that by itself was pretty telling. Jack Detsch, Foreign Policy?
Q: Thanks, SDO. I'm curious -- satellite imagery in recent days has picked up new Russian deployments in farm areas, in tree lines and industrial areas. Do you have any signs that the Russians are trying to mask build-up and may have further forces in the field?
SDO: It is of their playbook to try to conceal their units and their capabilities from the collection of imagery, both overhead and on the ground. So while I can't speak to specifics in terms of, like, where on the map they might be doing this or how they might be doing it, we certainly expect that they're continuing that sort of tactic, to try to mask what they actually have arrayed.
Q: And then just given what they have arrayed, I guess, the 190,000 troops -- I know you're not putting a ballpark number on it, but do you have any indications that the Russians are preparing to bring any reserve forces, just given the scale of the operation?
SDO: We do have indications that they plan to use reserves and their equivalent of the National Guard, and that's concerning because that would connote to us that again, the implication would be that they have long-term goals here. You know, you don't call up a reserve force or a guard force like that if you're not planning to be somewhere for a while. So yeah, I think I'll leave it at that. Joe Gould?
Q: Hey, SDO. You said that there are different ways that we're exploring, and by "we" I assume you mean the Pentagon, if air transport's not possible to deliver lethal and nonlethal aid to the Ukrainians. What is the status of that air bridge right now? And what is the risk, if you're going to continue to supply the Ukrainians of a direct conflict between the U.S. and NATO and Russia?
SDO: We're exploring, Joe, I'm not saying there have been any final decisions made. Obviously, whatever support they continue to get, we want to make sure that it's appropriate to the need and that it can be done safely and effectively. Again, there hasn't been any final decisions one way or the other. And as for, you know, ongoing shipments, I think it'd be best if we just don't lay that out too specifically. But we have continued to look for ways -- examining ways, like, how support can be provided in a post-invasion scenario. And again, no final decisions about the mechanisms have been made yet.
SDO: Let's see. Man, there's a lot on here. Any more in the room? Joe -- Jim?
Q: What's your assessment of the combat capabilities of the Ukrainian Armed Forces and their ability to resist an invasion of this magnitude?
SDO: This is not the same Ukrainian Armed Forces that Mr. Putin met in 2014. As I'm not going to lay out the order of battle for the Russians, I'm not going to lay out the order of battle for the Ukrainians, particularly in a pre-invasion scenario. I will just tell you that they are more competent and more capable than they were even just eight years ago, and they have benefited from not only the millions and millions of dollars of security assistance that the United States has provided but the training that we have also provided on a rotational basis and that other nations have as well. And you know, I'd point you to statements made by Ukrainian leaders themselves in just the last 24 to 36 hours about what their indication -- what their intentions are in terms of defending their homeland and their fellow citizens. Abraham?
Q: (inaudible) Yes, thanks a lot, SDO. And maybe if you don't have this now, if you had it by [Omitted] that'd be great. Just to follow up on Carla's question are there any updates at all on the arrivals of the troops and the assets, the air platforms like those F-35s? When and where they might be --
SDO: I think we put it in our statement yesterday. They're going to start moving, some of them have already started to move today, and we expect them to be in place in the next few days. It's going to change based on each unit and where they're coming from and how long they have to -- how far they have to go. EUCOM would be a much better source for this specific. I don't -- I'm not -- I don't have the schedule, but in the coming days they should all be in place.
Q: And just a clarification to Fadi's question, is there a disconnect between the white house saying that they can confirm an invasion has happened and DOD saying they cannot confirm?
SDO: No. There's no disconnect. Let me try this one again. We cannot confirm specifics of additional forces. I just don't -- I can't give you numbers. I can’t give you locations, but we have absolutely no reason to suspect that it's not true that they are not moving in there. If I was inarticulate at the beginning, then that's on me. There's no disconnect. There's no gap. We believe that another invasion has begun. We do believe that Russian military forces are -- have further incurred into the eastern part of Ukraine, but I can't give you specifics in terms of what that looks like.
Q: Thanks, SDO.
SDO: And if I was --
Q: Bear with us. I mean, we’re trying to understand. I don’t want to go on air and report something wrong or put words in your mouth. I'm just trying to understand --
Q: And you know, please appreciate that the fact that I still don't have a quite understanding. Assumptions are not facts. Are you assuming troops went in or do you have evidence that troops went in and regardless of the numbers and positions?
SDO: Fadi, we support the president's comments that another invasion has begun. I am not in a position today as I told you at the outset, so I'll try this again. There's going to be a limit to how much specificity we can go into. This is one of those limits. If I had numbers and specifics to give you today, I would have done it. I don't. I'm just trying to be honest with you. We absolutely concur with the president that another invasion has begun. We have no reason to dispute that the Russians have moved in to eastern Ukraine. There's no gap. What I'm telling you is I cannot confirm for you how many and where they're going and what they're doing. We just don't have that level of fidelity. And if I wasn't as clear at the beginning, then that's on me and I apologize, but there's no gap here, okay? So when you go report this I hope you will report that the Pentagon completely concurs with the president's assessment but they were unable to confirm the specifics of it. That' what I was trying to do obviously and artfully.
Q: Okay. Thank you, SDO.
SDO: Luis?
Q: I think the confusion has to do with the two separatists republics that Russian forces went in there yesterday, which is what I believe the president was addressing. I think the other questions that can't put words in my colleague's mouths, but I think what they're asking is whether you have seen additional forces break out from beyond those two separatist republics?
SDO: We have not.
Q: On the deployment to the Eastern Europe, we understand that the F-35s would have dominate the air space. What about the Apaches? What was the reason to deploy Apaches?
SDO: Again the movements that we made yesterday are meant to reassure our allies and to improve interoperability and readiness. And to Meghann's question you can expect to see them conduct training missions, training flights, conduct exercises to improve alliance defensive capabilities. We have serious Article 5 commitments to NATO. We believe in those commitments, and systems like Apache helicopters are certainly very capable at improving defensive capabilities.
(50:18) David?
Q: Excuse me. Back to the off the record thing…
*NOTE: Off-the-record conversation commenced.
(51:41) Tony?
Q: I wanted to specify the Apache units. 12 of them were coming from Greece. It's a little confusing. Was there a U.S. Army unit in Greece flying back or was the Greek Army donating 12 --
SDO: No, U.S. U.S.
Q: Okay. And was it the 173rd Airborne? Is that the battalion that's going --
SDO: I don't have that with me.
Q: -- because that was mentioned and you guys can confirm --
SDO: I don't have that with me. You should talk to EUCOM.
Q: On the 80%, I need to be clear again, because my editors are asking. You're saying 80% of Russia's total military might is now arrayed, uncoiled, ready to go along the Ukrainian border?
SDO: No. What I said was 805 of their forces are what we would say is are in a ready position.
Q: 80% of the forces that are on the border of Ukraine?
SDO: 80 -- no, no, no. No.
SDO: We believe he has assembled essentially 100% of his aviation assets, 100% of his maritime assets and dang near 100% of his ground, I mean, very close to 100%, okay? So of the 120+ battalion tactical groups that he has, as well as the other assets, aviation and maritime, when you add all that together we believe that, of that total force about 80 percent of it, largely ground, because if you just look at sheer numbers of units, it's largely a ground thing here, are in what we would consider ready position.
Q: Ok. But that’s not 80% of the entire Russian military. I misheard you then. I thought you said that.
(CROSSTALK)
Q: When you say that the ones who are there are 80% capable of – just kidding.
(Laughter.)
SDO: The entire Russian military is not there. Guys, I'm --
Q: (Inaudible) way that you're phrasing it, is that 80% of their forces. I think when you’re saying are 80% of the forces that they have already amassed at this border are ready.
SDO: Yes.
Q: Okay, that's what we're trying to clarify.
SDO: I thought that's what I said. Is that not what I said?
Q: You keep saying ‘80% of their forces,’ we want to --
Q: (Inaudible), what percentage?
Q: -- total military forces?
SDO: So, this was a good idea. 80% of the forces they have assigned and arrayed for potential invasion of Ukraine are what we would consider in a ready position. He has other military forces elsewhere in Russia and elsewhere around the world.
Q: Do you know which percentage?
Q: No.
Q: Okay, if you don't that's fine. I was just wondering. (inaudible) Do you know, which percentage of the Russian order battle is arrayed around --
SDO: No.
Q: Okay. Okay.
Q: (Inaudible) we're clear?
Q: We're clear.
SDO: Are we sure?
Q: I'm clear.
SDO: Okay.
Q: Did you already say the stuff that was announced yesterday, the F-35s -- the Apaches (inaudible) that they've already moved forward? Did we ask that? I can't remember.
SDO: If they moved forward?
Q: If they were in their Baltic -- new Baltic locations?
SDO: I don't think, they just got ordered to do this yesterday. So, I don't know where they physically are at this moment. There's 32 of them. That's a better question for EUCOM.
Q: And did you also say how many total? The 800 it says, but then, with the F-35s and the Apaches is like about 1,000 total people roughly?
SDO: Roughly.
Q: If Kyiv was the target of a Russian invasion, at the level we're talking about and based on the knowledge you have about the number of troops and the assets they have at the border and knowledge of the Ukrainian forces, how long do you think it would take Russian forces to reach Kyiv?
SDO: I'm not going to speculate.
Q: Not even off the record?
SDO: No.
(55:28) Q: On the off-the-record piece…
*NOTE: Off-the-record conversation commenced.
(55:56) Q: What sort of weather assessment -- because we've been hearing a lot about the weather.
SDO: Yes, we have.
Q: I know. I'm wondering about nighttime light illumination. Is that still no -- yes, no? Okay.
SDO: Are we done?
Q: The tides in the Black Sea?
SDO: All right, just to clarify, because apparently, just to end the confusion, it is 80% of what he has amassed around Ukraine that we believe, and this is largely ground, that we believe are in what we consider a ready position. Not 80% of the entire Russian military, 80% of what we see him assemble there. That's one. Number two, no daylight between us and the president and the White House. We do believe another invasion has occurred. What we cannot do is confirm the specifics of what those Russian military forces in the Donetsk and Luhansk area are, where they are, how long they've been there, what they're doing. Are we clear on that?
(CROSSTALK)
Q: I think we’ve damaged our chances of having another backgrounder, right? That's it for us.
(Laughter.)
SDO: No, I -- you didn't help, let's put it that way. But then again, I probably didn't help myself.
Q: So the fact that you cannot confirm (inaudible), I understand, but why? I don't understand why you cannot. Is it because they have been moving in and out regularly? And so is it really new or the -- that's where I have a problem understanding.
SDO: We can't just use social media posts and cellphone video and say "yeah, that proves it," right? We want to be able to do it for ourselves.
(57:41) And off the record…
*NOTE: Off-the-record conversation commenced.
(58:12) So we're not disputing it at all. We have every reason to believe that they are moving in there. But I can't tell you, like, how many. So that's what I mean when I say "we couldn't confirm additional" It was poorly worded and on me but that's what I was talking about.
(CROSSTALK)
Q: You mean beyond separatist republics?
Q: No, in --
SDO: In the separatist republics.
Q: -- separatist republics, because again --
SDO: I don't want to call them "separatist republics." It's Eastern Ukraine, to Donetsk and Luhansk.
Q: But there's a difference though --
SDO: In the separatist areas.
Q: But you haven't seen them move beyond where they have had --
(CROSSTALK)
SDO: We have not.
(CROSSTALK)
SDO: We have not, but again, our visibility is not perfect.
Q: Is the airspace open to the United States aircraft?
(CROSSTALK)
SDO: As far as I know, as of this morning, commercial aircraft were still taking off and landing at Kyiv. I'm not going to talk about, as I said earlier, I'm not going to get into what our ISR platforms are doing, or where they are, or what they're -- I'm just -- even off the record, I'm not going to go into that.
Q: Well, you just said "we have every reason to believe they are moving in there." Was that off the record or on background? I lost track of where we were at on that. I’m actually serious, was that --
SDO: That’s on background, that's fine.
SDO: You talking about the Eastern Ukraine? Yeah.
Q: Yeah, into the separatist republics that we won't call "republics." We'll call them --
SDO: Correct. Okay, so hopefully this was somewhat useful.
(CROSSTALK)
SDO: I will try to do this every day. I will try, but I want to caveat again, I want to start where I left off, there's going to be limits. I know your appetites are insatiable, I know the pressure that you're under to report out of here. We totally understand that. But this is -- if he does what we think he's going to do, it's not going to be our war, it's going to be Mr. Putin's war and I would just, again, ask your forbearance for the limits of what we're, A, going to know, and B, going to be able to say.
(1:00:22) So let me now go back off the record to end this thing…
*NOTE: Off-the-record conversation commenced.
(1:01:20) Q: Thank you so much, this was really helpful. Thank you.
(CROSSTALK)
-END-
[Eds. Note: Due to the established on-background attribution rules for this briefing, identifying information of the Senior Defense Officials has been omitted.]