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I'm Zack Cooper from the American 

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Enterprise Institute . I'm joined today 

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from the Pentagon with Deputy assistant 

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Secretary of Defense Chest Baraza . So 

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happy to have you here a few ground 

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rules before we begin . After a brief 

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introduction , Deputy Assistant 

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Secretaries Brad I will walk us through 

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some of the highlights of this year's 

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report and then we'll begin a 

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discussion . We also have an incredible 

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number of China experts on this assume 

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call and a lot of other national 

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national security expertise and 

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audience , and so we'll be looking 

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forward to taking your questions . At 

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the end . You can enter questions into 

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the Q and A function via Zoom , or you 

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can tweet them using the hashtag China 

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Military Power 2020 now onto our guest 

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for today chats . A barrage of it 

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serves is the deputy assistant 

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secretary of defense for China and the 

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office of the Assistant secretary of 

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Defense for Indo Pacific Security 

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Affairs . In this role , he is 

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responsible for advising senior 

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leadership within the Defense 

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Department on all matters pertaining to 

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the development and implementation of 

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defense strategies , plans , policies 

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and bilateral security relations for 

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China . Previously , dusty surprises 

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served as the director of the China 

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Research Group for the U . S . Marine 

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Corps , has also served as the deputy 

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director of the China Strategic Focus 

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Group that the U . S Indo Pacific 

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Command and Country Director for China 

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Taiwan in Mongolia under the J five 

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strategic Planning Policy director , 

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and from 1985 to 2012 he served in the 

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U . S . Marine Corps , where he led 

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Marines up through the battalion level 

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and deployed across the Middle East , 

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Africa and the Indo Pacific . He's also 

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been a marine attache at the U . S . 

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Embassy in Beijing . So as you can see , 

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a daisy surprise has done just about 

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everything possible on the defense 

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focused world on China . We're so glad 

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to have him here today to talk us 

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through This really important report is 

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the 20th anniversary . I know you've 

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got a lot , so walk us through . So 

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does do you surprised over to you to 

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make some opening remarks ? 

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Thank you , Jack . Good morning . Very 

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appreciative , certainly thanks to you 

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personally and thanks to AI for hosting 

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the event , it's important certainly is 

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an aspect of the secretary's desires to 

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be transparent and fully share the 

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information in the report . As you 

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mentioned , the Department of Defense 

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has provided the shot a military power 

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report for about two decades now on its 

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long served as a Touchstone for 

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authoritative information for Congress 

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and the reports , other audiences as 

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well . This year's report is almost 200 

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pages long . I won't certainly try to 

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summarize it all , and I certainly 

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would ask those online today to 

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monotonously quiz me . I have not 

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memorized the entire report yet , but I 

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strongly encouraged the audience to 

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read it . Um instead , I will briefly 

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discuss while why this year's report is 

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particularly important , and I'll offer 

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a view of what the major changes are 

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were made and why . Aziz . The 

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Department of Defense continues to 

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address the strategic challenges posed 

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by the People's Republic of China and 

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continues to implement the national 

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defense strategy , in which China's the 

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principal focus Secretary Esper has 

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made it clear that we , as a department 

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must deepen our understanding of China 

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and the People's Liberation Army and 

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the China Military Power Report is one 

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of many ways in which we can support 

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that goal . Given the growing focus on 

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China , it's important that this year's 

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report provide an authoritative and 

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sober explanation of China's national 

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strategy as it relates to security 

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issues involving China and developments 

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within China's armed forces . To do so . 

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The report explains the relationship 

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between the Communist Party of China 

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strategy , it's ideology , political 

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and governing systems and the party's 

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view of China's external environment , 

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particularly systemic Calvary and the 

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international strategic competition 

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that's underway . These factors are 

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drivers of China's foreign policy , 

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military , civil fusion strategy , 

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defence policy and military strategy . 

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These relationships are essential for 

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understanding the current and future 

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course of the PL A , including its 

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evolving roles and missions in support 

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of China's strategy and its long term 

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goal to become Quote world class 

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military by 2049 for the report 

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for the report to provide the most 

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accurate assessment of China's strategy 

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possible . We felt it was important to 

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use very authoritative sourcing over my 

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career . I've always found that there's 

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no better starting point for 

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understanding China's strategy than 

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China itself . This report carefully 

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and deliberately use , uses 

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authoritative Communist Party documents , 

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writings , speeches to provide a more 

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complete and accurate picture , an 

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account of China's strategy , its 

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ambitions and political and governing 

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systems as articulated and understood 

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by the party itself . This requires 

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obviously careful working and attention . 

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On one hand , we don't want to nestle 

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amplify the party's false narratives . 

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Propaganda are hollow rhetoric . On the 

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other hand , we in the United States at 

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large can sometimes fall into the trap 

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of dismissing too much of what China 

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says as indecipherable political 

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rhetoric . And if you ignore what China 

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says about itself , it can places at a 

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greater risk of relying on the 

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caricatures of China . Strategy and 

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misunderstanding is strategic intent . 

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So by assessing China through this lens , 

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the China military power report is able 

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to provide some , I think , better 

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insights . For instance , it's clear 

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that in recent years the party has 

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become increasingly confident in the 

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superiority of its political and 

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governance systems and its ability to 

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manage China's challenges towards the 

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strategic ends . This confidence , for 

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example , is manifesting what is often 

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described as China's increasingly 

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assertive international behavior . 

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Moreover , it's clear that the party's 

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leaders , rather than risk adverse uh , 

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rather than being risk averse or 

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reactionary , view themselves as 

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modernizers of a certain stripe who are 

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confident that they have struck upon a 

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formula that works and works better . 

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China's economic and social 

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transformation under the party over the 

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past 40 years of particular have 

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generated greater confidence , not 

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timidity , As this report describes , 

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China's strategy seeks to achieve quote 

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the great rejuvenation of the Chinese 

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nation unquote by 2049 China's main 

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national and state . This strategy , 

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led by the party , entails a determined 

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pursuit of political and social 

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modernity and includes efforts to 

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expand China's national power . Perfect . 

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It's covered in system , revise and 

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revise the international order . The 

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Communist Party leadership 

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characterizes their strategy to achieve 

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miniter maternity as a national 

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endeavor that will transform China and 

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certainly , in turn the world . It's 

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important to acknowledge that the 

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Communist Party does not pursue these 

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strategic ends mechanically , or have 

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necessarily a detailed plan that 

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stretches out decades . Rather , what 

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the party does is it sets long term 

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national objectives that the party 

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drives the party state in the Chinese 

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society towards um and certainly adapts 

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to challenges and failures and 

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successes along the way . While party 

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leaders have consistently pursued 

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national rejuvenation as its goal , 

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they have demonstrated degree of 

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adaptability and execution to seize 

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opportunities and manage threats to 

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their strategy and interests . Moreover , 

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China's strategy is not without 

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deficiencies . China's strategy entails 

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numerous contradictions between China's 

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desires to continue benefiting from the 

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current peace and prosperity of the 

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current international system in order 

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to advance China's development towards 

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its national rejuvenation . At the same 

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time , China's strategic ambitions and 

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political governing systems , coupled 

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with growing means and opportunity 

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induce it to adopt him were assertive 

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in revisionist policies , which of 

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course threaten the peace and security 

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it desires . In many ways , 

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contextualizing China's defence 

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ambitions is another key part of this 

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report . The report does not claim that 

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China's military is currently 10 ft 

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tall nor , I think , certainly does 

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China either . The Pale faces a number 

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of challenges in Beijing is working to 

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overcome those which is really an 

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important point 

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at the center is that the party 

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constant ? The Philly , I think , 

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ultimately to be 10 ft tall . Ambitions 

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matter here and over the past 20 years , 

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what we've seen is that China's 

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ambitions drive the pill a sweeping 

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modernization and reform efforts which 

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this year see NPR has catalogued 

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clearly , as have previous editions in 

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which , for the national defense 

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strategy identifies , uh serves as a 

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critical source um from which , uh , 

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we may re face eroding competitive 

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military advantage , the comments party 

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stated . Goals are to transform the 

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pill a into a world class military by 

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mid century . While China has not 

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defined exactly what world class 

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military means , it is likely that 

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China will seek to build a military 

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that is equal to , or in some cases 

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superior to the U . S . Military or the 

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military of any other great power that 

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China perceives as a potential threat . 

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Given the context of the Communist 

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Party's strategy of national 

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rejuvenation , it is unlikely the party 

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will seek to end seek an end state in 

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which China remains in a position of 

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military inferiority visa via the 

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United States or any other rival . A 

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permanent condition of military 

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inferiority is anathema to the party's 

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goal of transformation that , to 

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transform China into a quote great 

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modern socialist country unquote , 

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the party views China's growing 

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strength as useful only to the extent 

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that the party state can mobilize it . 

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Party is modernizing and reforming the 

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P L . A . To support its strategy , 

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while the advancing military 

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capabilities are important . We want to 

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emphasize , and I think it's clear in 

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the report that the pill is not 

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intended to be merely a showpiece of 

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Chinese modernity . The CPC has 

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Communist Party has spent the last 

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several years completely tearing out in 

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rewiring the pill , organizationally 

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00:10:31,270 --> 00:10:33,381
with the gold to transform into um or 

280
00:10:33,381 --> 00:10:35,603
joint force that is increasingly combat 

281
00:10:35,603 --> 00:10:38,460
ready , innovative and global . Finally , 

282
00:10:38,460 --> 00:10:40,404
the report highlights that China's 

283
00:10:40,404 --> 00:10:42,571
investments in and reforms of the pill 

284
00:10:42,571 --> 00:10:44,682
A are intended to transform it into a 

285
00:10:44,682 --> 00:10:46,550
more practical instruments of 

286
00:10:46,550 --> 00:10:48,680
statecraft . And that is certainly 

287
00:10:48,680 --> 00:10:50,791
called out within the report that put 

288
00:10:50,791 --> 00:10:52,958
the party has called for the P L . A . 

289
00:10:52,958 --> 00:10:55,180
To take an active role in advancing the 

290
00:10:55,180 --> 00:10:57,180
PRC's foreign policy , particularly 

291
00:10:57,180 --> 00:10:58,902
with respect to China's global 

292
00:10:58,902 --> 00:11:00,736
interests and its aims to revise 

293
00:11:00,736 --> 00:11:02,791
aspects of the international order . 

294
00:11:02,840 --> 00:11:04,951
Beijing very much intends or believes 

295
00:11:04,951 --> 00:11:08,680
it will have to use this . I use this 

296
00:11:08,780 --> 00:11:10,724
military instrument to advance and 

297
00:11:10,724 --> 00:11:12,558
defend its conception of Chinese 

298
00:11:12,558 --> 00:11:14,058
sovereignty , security and 

299
00:11:14,058 --> 00:11:16,280
developmental interests . Zach , I just 

300
00:11:16,280 --> 00:11:18,447
wanted again reiterate my appreciation 

301
00:11:18,447 --> 00:11:20,790
for the fourth today your efforts and 

302
00:11:20,790 --> 00:11:22,957
certainly as well as the participation 

303
00:11:22,957 --> 00:11:25,179
of the audience online and look for the 

304
00:11:25,179 --> 00:11:27,234
questions . Wonderful . Well , thank 

305
00:11:27,234 --> 00:11:29,401
you so much for walking us through the 

306
00:11:29,401 --> 00:11:31,623
report . You're right . It's a long 200 

307
00:11:31,623 --> 00:11:33,790
pages , but there's so much content in 

308
00:11:33,790 --> 00:11:36,012
there , and so assed folks are probably 

309
00:11:36,012 --> 00:11:38,123
reading through it at home . I wanted 

310
00:11:38,123 --> 00:11:37,980
to take a little bit of time to jump 

311
00:11:37,980 --> 00:11:39,980
through it . The some of the things 

312
00:11:39,980 --> 00:11:42,091
that jumped out to me in the report , 

313
00:11:42,091 --> 00:11:44,180
Um , and the first is on the comment 

314
00:11:44,180 --> 00:11:46,291
that you ended on about Chinese power 

315
00:11:46,291 --> 00:11:48,760
projection and overseas objectives . So 

316
00:11:48,760 --> 00:11:50,816
this year's report discusses China's 

317
00:11:50,816 --> 00:11:53,038
continue turn for US power projection . 

318
00:11:53,038 --> 00:11:55,204
And it states that China's military is 

319
00:11:55,204 --> 00:11:57,038
not only intended to be merely a 

320
00:11:57,038 --> 00:11:59,140
showpiece of China's maternity or to 

321
00:11:59,140 --> 00:12:01,084
keep it focused solely on regional 

322
00:12:01,084 --> 00:12:03,880
threats . And , you know , so this is 

323
00:12:03,880 --> 00:12:05,950
very clear that this is a global 

324
00:12:05,960 --> 00:12:08,182
military , our military that would like 

325
00:12:08,182 --> 00:12:10,127
to have global ambitions . And one 

326
00:12:10,127 --> 00:12:12,182
thing that jumped out at me was that 

327
00:12:12,182 --> 00:12:14,404
this report , unlike others , says that 

328
00:12:14,404 --> 00:12:16,627
the PRC has likely considered locations 

329
00:12:16,627 --> 00:12:18,404
for Peel , a military logistics 

330
00:12:18,404 --> 00:12:20,430
facilities in Myanmar , Thailand , 

331
00:12:20,430 --> 00:12:22,870
Singapore , Indonesia , Pakistan , Sri 

332
00:12:22,870 --> 00:12:25,037
Lanka , United Arab Emirates , Kenya , 

333
00:12:25,037 --> 00:12:27,130
Seychelles , Tanzania , Angola and 

334
00:12:27,130 --> 00:12:29,400
Tajikistan . And the report also 

335
00:12:29,400 --> 00:12:31,570
mentions the existing base in Djibouti 

336
00:12:31,570 --> 00:12:34,030
and , of course , some debate within 

337
00:12:34,030 --> 00:12:36,420
Cambodia about China gaining access to 

338
00:12:36,430 --> 00:12:38,652
re naval base . So I'm wondering if you 

339
00:12:38,652 --> 00:12:40,880
can talk a little bit both about the 

340
00:12:40,890 --> 00:12:43,060
logic of China's turn towards power 

341
00:12:43,060 --> 00:12:45,170
projection and whether you think 

342
00:12:45,170 --> 00:12:47,226
there's been an acceleration . Maybe 

343
00:12:47,226 --> 00:12:49,337
over the last year , that this report 

344
00:12:49,337 --> 00:12:52,070
focused on in China's looking outward 

345
00:12:52,080 --> 00:12:54,540
beyond its near sees towards more 

346
00:12:54,540 --> 00:12:58,360
overseas objectives as act . That's a 

347
00:12:58,360 --> 00:13:00,693
great question . Thank you for that . I , 

348
00:13:00,693 --> 00:13:02,650
um I will . I will reinforce your 

349
00:13:02,650 --> 00:13:04,706
conclusion here , which is obviously 

350
00:13:04,706 --> 00:13:06,706
also found in the report , which is 

351
00:13:06,706 --> 00:13:09,080
that the Chinese do have . The Chinese 

352
00:13:09,080 --> 00:13:11,191
leadership of the Communist Party has 

353
00:13:11,191 --> 00:13:13,880
an aspiration for great power status by 

354
00:13:13,890 --> 00:13:15,390
virtually every measure of 

355
00:13:15,390 --> 00:13:17,557
comprehensive composite national power 

356
00:13:17,557 --> 00:13:20,310
that you that you could measure that 

357
00:13:20,480 --> 00:13:22,424
not least of which is the People's 

358
00:13:22,424 --> 00:13:24,647
Liberation Army . And to achieve that , 

359
00:13:24,647 --> 00:13:26,990
that means that they have to have , you 

360
00:13:26,990 --> 00:13:29,400
know , a global convergence at at the 

361
00:13:29,400 --> 00:13:32,070
broadest scale possible for the P L . A . 

362
00:13:32,070 --> 00:13:34,292
That means that they do have the intent 

363
00:13:34,292 --> 00:13:36,348
to go out . I think that's certainly 

364
00:13:36,348 --> 00:13:38,514
one of the aspects of what world class 

365
00:13:38,514 --> 00:13:40,681
military means , which is the capacity 

366
00:13:40,681 --> 00:13:42,903
to have influence at distance at a time 

367
00:13:42,903 --> 00:13:45,070
and place of their choosing . And they 

368
00:13:45,070 --> 00:13:47,970
certainly inspired to do that within 

369
00:13:47,970 --> 00:13:49,970
the last year . There certainly has 

370
00:13:49,970 --> 00:13:52,081
been an uptick in their aspirations . 

371
00:13:52,081 --> 00:13:54,303
Aziz , they declare . Talk about them . 

372
00:13:54,303 --> 00:13:56,526
I don't think this is necessarily a new 

373
00:13:56,526 --> 00:13:58,748
objective that they have . It certainly 

374
00:13:58,748 --> 00:14:00,748
port and intimately linked to their 

375
00:14:00,748 --> 00:14:02,414
long term nationals strategic 

376
00:14:02,414 --> 00:14:04,692
aspirations . But things were changing , 

377
00:14:04,692 --> 00:14:04,430
and they're changing rapidly in China , 

378
00:14:04,430 --> 00:14:06,652
and we see those developments unfolding 

379
00:14:06,652 --> 00:14:08,652
right in front of our eyes . If you 

380
00:14:08,652 --> 00:14:10,652
don't pay attention , if you're not 

381
00:14:10,652 --> 00:14:12,763
attentive to them , is that you could 

382
00:14:12,763 --> 00:14:14,874
miss those . Those basic facilities , 

383
00:14:14,874 --> 00:14:17,097
as you notice , are important . They're 

384
00:14:17,097 --> 00:14:19,208
testing their trying to explore their 

385
00:14:19,208 --> 00:14:21,374
trying to understand they're trying to 

386
00:14:21,374 --> 00:14:23,374
devise and come up with plans about 

387
00:14:23,374 --> 00:14:25,430
what , where and what types of bases 

388
00:14:25,430 --> 00:14:27,652
and how they might use those facilities 

389
00:14:27,652 --> 00:14:29,708
overseas . Best . I don't think that 

390
00:14:29,708 --> 00:14:31,708
they have reached necessarily final 

391
00:14:31,708 --> 00:14:31,400
conclusions on any of those yet , 

392
00:14:31,640 --> 00:14:33,751
certainly with Djibouti , they have , 

393
00:14:33,751 --> 00:14:35,751
um , but their aspirations were not 

394
00:14:35,751 --> 00:14:37,807
small , and they're not limited to a 

395
00:14:37,807 --> 00:14:39,862
single geographic location . This is 

396
00:14:39,862 --> 00:14:42,029
global in scale , so we'll continue to 

397
00:14:42,029 --> 00:14:44,029
modern to that . There's aspects of 

398
00:14:44,029 --> 00:14:46,307
this that may be helpful in the future , 

399
00:14:46,307 --> 00:14:48,251
but truly our eyes are on how that 

400
00:14:48,251 --> 00:14:50,196
impacts the United States national 

401
00:14:50,196 --> 00:14:52,251
security , our interests overall and 

402
00:14:52,251 --> 00:14:54,140
that of our allies and partners . 

403
00:14:56,940 --> 00:14:59,590
Wonderful . And another issue that is 

404
00:14:59,590 --> 00:15:01,590
going to get a lot of attention , I 

405
00:15:01,590 --> 00:15:03,810
think , is the reports . Statements 

406
00:15:03,810 --> 00:15:06,600
about missile capabilities in 

407
00:15:06,600 --> 00:15:10,180
particular . In 2000 , the first China 

408
00:15:10,180 --> 00:15:12,620
Military Power report assessed that the 

409
00:15:12,630 --> 00:15:14,519
feel they lack the capabilities , 

410
00:15:14,519 --> 00:15:16,630
organization and readiness for modern 

411
00:15:16,630 --> 00:15:18,741
warfare . And this year's report says 

412
00:15:18,741 --> 00:15:20,741
China has marshaled the resource is 

413
00:15:20,741 --> 00:15:22,908
technology and political will over the 

414
00:15:22,908 --> 00:15:24,852
past two decades to strengthen and 

415
00:15:24,852 --> 00:15:26,852
modernize the peel and nearly every 

416
00:15:26,852 --> 00:15:29,186
respect . Indeed , as this report shows , 

417
00:15:29,186 --> 00:15:31,186
China's already ahead of the United 

418
00:15:31,186 --> 00:15:33,200
States in certain areas . And the 

419
00:15:33,200 --> 00:15:35,256
report calls out three . I wanted to 

420
00:15:35,256 --> 00:15:37,144
just talk about one of them for a 

421
00:15:37,144 --> 00:15:39,200
minute , which is the conventionally 

422
00:15:39,200 --> 00:15:41,370
armed missile capability . Andi . Some 

423
00:15:41,370 --> 00:15:43,426
of these air also nuclear capable as 

424
00:15:43,426 --> 00:15:46,040
well . This year's report shows a 

425
00:15:46,050 --> 00:15:48,880
pretty large increase in the estimated 

426
00:15:48,880 --> 00:15:51,040
number of intermediate intermediate 

427
00:15:51,040 --> 00:15:53,470
range ballistic missiles in China's 

428
00:15:53,470 --> 00:15:55,692
arsenal . I assume some of those air de 

429
00:15:55,692 --> 00:15:59,650
of 26 is , but I don't know , um , so I 

430
00:15:59,650 --> 00:16:01,872
wanted to ask you , you know , that the 

431
00:16:01,872 --> 00:16:03,817
increase in this report is up from 

432
00:16:03,817 --> 00:16:05,928
something like 80 launchers last year 

433
00:16:05,928 --> 00:16:08,610
to 200 estimated this year . So that's 

434
00:16:08,610 --> 00:16:10,832
a pretty big increase , especially when 

435
00:16:10,832 --> 00:16:12,721
the rest of the ballistic missile 

436
00:16:12,721 --> 00:16:14,777
forces stayed relatively stable , at 

437
00:16:14,777 --> 00:16:17,030
least as as estimated by the Defense 

438
00:16:17,030 --> 00:16:19,350
Department . Andi , we've obviously 

439
00:16:19,350 --> 00:16:21,710
just seen this capability tested last 

440
00:16:21,710 --> 00:16:23,860
week in the South China Sea . So I'm 

441
00:16:23,860 --> 00:16:25,916
wondering if you could talk a little 

442
00:16:25,916 --> 00:16:27,971
bit about China's missile forces and 

443
00:16:27,971 --> 00:16:30,138
how they're changing . And what do you 

444
00:16:30,138 --> 00:16:32,360
think is behind some of these changes ? 

445
00:16:32,360 --> 00:16:34,582
Certainly , there's not a single causal 

446
00:16:34,582 --> 00:16:36,749
factor for that . I think this touches 

447
00:16:36,749 --> 00:16:39,410
on on Mary many aspects of how the 

448
00:16:39,410 --> 00:16:41,521
Chinese perceive themselves and where 

449
00:16:41,521 --> 00:16:44,350
they need to be , both as they met or 

450
00:16:44,360 --> 00:16:46,850
trying to meet 2020 markers , 2035 

451
00:16:46,850 --> 00:16:49,290
markers and then ultimately mid century 

452
00:16:49,290 --> 00:16:51,234
markers for the development of the 

453
00:16:51,234 --> 00:16:53,012
nation at large and the Chinese 

454
00:16:53,012 --> 00:16:54,790
military in particular . So the 

455
00:16:54,790 --> 00:16:57,590
missiles air are certainly a 

456
00:16:57,590 --> 00:16:59,840
consequential aspect of what they're 

457
00:16:59,840 --> 00:17:02,020
undertaking , and it has our full 

458
00:17:02,020 --> 00:17:04,710
attention , as as you can imagine , not 

459
00:17:04,710 --> 00:17:06,821
least of which is is the ration , the 

460
00:17:06,821 --> 00:17:09,140
reasons and the rationale behind why we 

461
00:17:09,140 --> 00:17:12,720
have in the past , you know , accepted 

462
00:17:12,730 --> 00:17:15,130
and promoted limitations on those kind 

463
00:17:15,130 --> 00:17:16,908
of systems for their inherently 

464
00:17:16,908 --> 00:17:19,920
escalatory nature of what they provide , 

465
00:17:20,300 --> 00:17:23,930
but not having that , uh , 

466
00:17:24,170 --> 00:17:26,337
having been constrained by that in the 

467
00:17:26,337 --> 00:17:28,503
past . The Chinese just simply haven't 

468
00:17:28,503 --> 00:17:30,337
been part of those international 

469
00:17:30,337 --> 00:17:32,448
agreements or accords , have not felt 

470
00:17:32,448 --> 00:17:34,503
the necessity to do so and pursued a 

471
00:17:34,503 --> 00:17:36,560
much more escalatory path for them . 

472
00:17:36,900 --> 00:17:39,011
It's about technology , technological 

473
00:17:39,011 --> 00:17:40,789
prestige , fielding in advanced 

474
00:17:40,789 --> 00:17:43,710
capabilities and , uh , and forces , 

475
00:17:44,060 --> 00:17:46,340
certainly not least of which is what 

476
00:17:46,340 --> 00:17:48,284
they perceived to be an asymmetric 

477
00:17:48,284 --> 00:17:50,340
advantage that they will have of the 

478
00:17:50,340 --> 00:17:52,562
United States , particularly during the 

479
00:17:52,562 --> 00:17:54,784
time when we had self imposed or agreed 

480
00:17:54,784 --> 00:17:56,840
to limitations that we adhere to and 

481
00:17:56,840 --> 00:17:59,062
they have not . So in this case is it's 

482
00:17:59,062 --> 00:18:01,118
a change of condition for them where 

483
00:18:01,118 --> 00:18:03,229
they felt some advantage , a strength 

484
00:18:03,229 --> 00:18:05,229
and area of potential strength that 

485
00:18:05,229 --> 00:18:07,396
they might have in a potential area of 

486
00:18:07,396 --> 00:18:07,060
weakness that the assessed that we 

487
00:18:07,060 --> 00:18:09,920
might possess . So it is important that 

488
00:18:09,930 --> 00:18:12,263
the change and the numbers that you see , 

489
00:18:12,263 --> 00:18:14,319
of course , in any reporter , only a 

490
00:18:14,319 --> 00:18:16,486
snapshot in time . They're dynamic and 

491
00:18:16,486 --> 00:18:18,541
they change . They certainly changed 

492
00:18:18,541 --> 00:18:20,819
since the previous report . In the end , 

493
00:18:20,819 --> 00:18:22,708
alley will change as you see next 

494
00:18:22,708 --> 00:18:24,763
year's report , but which we'll , of 

495
00:18:24,763 --> 00:18:24,650
course next week , will begin 

496
00:18:25,080 --> 00:18:28,360
developing . So with that is the P . L . 

497
00:18:28,360 --> 00:18:31,870
A . Has fielded approximately 200 I R B 

498
00:18:31,870 --> 00:18:34,300
M launchers and more than 200 missiles , 

499
00:18:34,470 --> 00:18:37,190
and we continue to modern monitor that 

500
00:18:37,190 --> 00:18:39,246
very closely and look for other ways 

501
00:18:39,246 --> 00:18:41,079
that to extend the United States 

502
00:18:41,079 --> 00:18:43,134
advantage and that of our allies and 

503
00:18:43,134 --> 00:18:46,830
partners . I do expect to Seymour on 

504
00:18:46,830 --> 00:18:49,090
the horizon , but certainly the Chinese 

505
00:18:49,090 --> 00:18:51,312
air , aware of the change of conditions 

506
00:18:51,312 --> 00:18:53,534
that have happened over the last really 

507
00:18:53,534 --> 00:18:55,534
about a year and a half in terms of 

508
00:18:55,534 --> 00:18:57,701
constraints and limitations on those . 

509
00:18:57,701 --> 00:18:59,757
And that may be a point of departure 

510
00:18:59,757 --> 00:19:01,701
for discussions with them . That's 

511
00:19:01,701 --> 00:19:03,923
fantastic . You know , one of the areas 

512
00:19:03,923 --> 00:19:06,146
that I think is connected , obviously , 

513
00:19:06,146 --> 00:19:07,979
toe I r B m force eyes , nuclear 

514
00:19:07,979 --> 00:19:10,201
weapons And here , actually , one thing 

515
00:19:10,201 --> 00:19:12,423
I really appreciate about the report is 

516
00:19:12,423 --> 00:19:14,257
it's , you know , we're not just 

517
00:19:14,257 --> 00:19:16,201
tryingto present . I think as much 

518
00:19:16,201 --> 00:19:18,201
negative information about what the 

519
00:19:18,201 --> 00:19:20,312
Chinese military is doing as really , 

520
00:19:20,312 --> 00:19:22,257
very fact based . And there's some 

521
00:19:22,257 --> 00:19:24,534
facts here that I think I'm a surprise . 

522
00:19:24,534 --> 00:19:28,070
Some people eso . The report states 

523
00:19:28,250 --> 00:19:29,861
that China's nuclear war has 

524
00:19:29,861 --> 00:19:31,917
stockpilers in the low to hundreds . 

525
00:19:32,460 --> 00:19:34,682
This is not a number that typically has 

526
00:19:34,682 --> 00:19:36,682
been quoted in the China military , 

527
00:19:36,682 --> 00:19:38,904
Power reported . And as you know , many 

528
00:19:38,904 --> 00:19:41,071
of the outside reports suggested maybe 

529
00:19:41,071 --> 00:19:43,293
that number was closer to the low three 

530
00:19:43,293 --> 00:19:45,404
hundreds , or even or even higher and 

531
00:19:45,404 --> 00:19:47,860
in some cases , much higher on DSO . I 

532
00:19:47,860 --> 00:19:50,870
wanted to ask a little bit about about 

533
00:19:50,870 --> 00:19:53,092
nuclear weapons . There are a couple of 

534
00:19:53,092 --> 00:19:55,259
other interesting things in the report 

535
00:19:55,259 --> 00:19:57,314
on nuclear weapons , one of which is 

536
00:19:57,314 --> 00:19:59,370
that it suggests China is building a 

537
00:19:59,370 --> 00:20:01,259
silo based nuclear capability for 

538
00:20:01,259 --> 00:20:03,314
launch on Warning , which I think is 

539
00:20:03,314 --> 00:20:05,314
going to come as a surprise to some 

540
00:20:05,314 --> 00:20:07,370
people , at least in the community . 

541
00:20:07,370 --> 00:20:09,592
Eso Can you talk a little bit about the 

542
00:20:09,592 --> 00:20:11,537
Chinese nuclear force and how it's 

543
00:20:11,537 --> 00:20:13,648
changing . Obviously , we've seen the 

544
00:20:13,648 --> 00:20:15,648
last few weeks . Secretary Esper on 

545
00:20:15,648 --> 00:20:17,592
others . The undersecretary of the 

546
00:20:17,592 --> 00:20:19,814
Anderson , for example , mentioned that 

547
00:20:19,814 --> 00:20:22,037
China hopes to double or maybe thinking 

548
00:20:22,037 --> 00:20:24,203
about doubling this nuclear force over 

549
00:20:24,203 --> 00:20:26,400
the next decade . So look forward to 

550
00:20:26,400 --> 00:20:28,511
your insights about where the Chinese 

551
00:20:28,511 --> 00:20:31,060
nuclear capabilities airheaded . Yeah , 

552
00:20:31,060 --> 00:20:33,393
that's great . They should be attentive . 

553
00:20:33,393 --> 00:20:35,616
Certainly we are , and that's I think , 

554
00:20:35,616 --> 00:20:37,838
the rationale for why we ensure that we 

555
00:20:37,838 --> 00:20:39,782
included the best numbers and best 

556
00:20:39,782 --> 00:20:41,782
understanding we could have in this 

557
00:20:41,782 --> 00:20:43,893
report really stems from two issues . 

558
00:20:43,893 --> 00:20:45,727
One is going back to some of the 

559
00:20:45,727 --> 00:20:47,616
opening comments , which is as an 

560
00:20:47,616 --> 00:20:49,616
aspect of try as long term national 

561
00:20:49,616 --> 00:20:51,910
strategic aspirations and what those 

562
00:20:51,910 --> 00:20:54,930
mean for China's strategic systems , 

563
00:20:55,020 --> 00:20:57,076
conclude the P L . A . And what they 

564
00:20:57,830 --> 00:21:01,380
what those capacities are is you will 

565
00:21:01,380 --> 00:21:03,436
see the trend lines that are in play 

566
00:21:03,436 --> 00:21:06,310
right now . So the report does contend 

567
00:21:06,310 --> 00:21:08,532
that there's currently an estimated low 

568
00:21:08,532 --> 00:21:10,310
to hundreds in terms of warhead 

569
00:21:10,310 --> 00:21:12,570
stockpiles , and it's projected to at 

570
00:21:12,570 --> 00:21:14,792
least double in size of the next decade 

571
00:21:14,792 --> 00:21:17,014
as China expands and modernizes nuclear 

572
00:21:17,014 --> 00:21:19,770
forces . I think it's also important 

573
00:21:19,780 --> 00:21:21,724
that the report notes that China's 

574
00:21:21,724 --> 00:21:23,391
expanding and modernizing and 

575
00:21:23,391 --> 00:21:25,720
diversifies diversifying its nuclear 

576
00:21:25,720 --> 00:21:28,310
forces across the board is so just 

577
00:21:28,320 --> 00:21:30,542
looking at number of warheads by itself 

578
00:21:30,542 --> 00:21:33,040
is not the entire picture or doesn't 

579
00:21:33,040 --> 00:21:35,262
paint a holistic understanding of where 

580
00:21:35,262 --> 00:21:37,429
the where the changes are made , where 

581
00:21:37,429 --> 00:21:39,540
they want to go . As the report notes 

582
00:21:39,540 --> 00:21:41,540
within the next decade , China's on 

583
00:21:41,540 --> 00:21:44,580
course to expand IDS ballistic 

584
00:21:44,580 --> 00:21:46,691
submarine fleet and feel more capable 

585
00:21:46,691 --> 00:21:48,858
of longer range sea launched ballistic 

586
00:21:48,858 --> 00:21:51,024
missiles , complete development of its 

587
00:21:51,024 --> 00:21:53,080
nuclear capable airlines , ballistic 

588
00:21:53,080 --> 00:21:55,024
missiles and field them along with 

589
00:21:55,024 --> 00:21:57,200
associated bombers . Field additional 

590
00:21:57,200 --> 00:21:59,380
Road Mobile , I C , B M's and 

591
00:21:59,380 --> 00:22:01,602
potentially expand its silo based I C B 

592
00:22:01,602 --> 00:22:04,130
M force . So , as has been noted by 

593
00:22:04,130 --> 00:22:07,450
others on Daz , the report contends , 

594
00:22:07,910 --> 00:22:10,740
is that there's an aspect of that . 

595
00:22:10,740 --> 00:22:12,796
They're obviously in pursuit of it , 

596
00:22:12,796 --> 00:22:14,684
the full sweetened capacities and 

597
00:22:14,684 --> 00:22:16,240
include the building out of 

598
00:22:16,240 --> 00:22:18,296
infrastructure for more modernized , 

599
00:22:18,296 --> 00:22:21,990
capable and larger . The capacity in 

600
00:22:21,990 --> 00:22:25,810
this areas wonderful . And 

601
00:22:26,210 --> 00:22:28,420
I want to turn a little bit now , toe 

602
00:22:28,430 --> 00:22:30,486
some regional issues and maybe start 

603
00:22:30,486 --> 00:22:33,920
with a bit of framing about the fillets . 

604
00:22:33,920 --> 00:22:36,240
Global Role . The report states that 

605
00:22:36,240 --> 00:22:38,462
China's military strategy remains based 

606
00:22:38,462 --> 00:22:40,750
on the cop concept of active defense 

607
00:22:40,750 --> 00:22:42,750
and , as you know well , Taylor for 

608
00:22:42,750 --> 00:22:44,861
Bella's written a book on this recent 

609
00:22:44,861 --> 00:22:47,020
maybe came Out last year . Andi . He 

610
00:22:47,020 --> 00:22:49,131
suggests that in the short term , the 

611
00:22:49,131 --> 00:22:51,020
central focus of China's military 

612
00:22:51,020 --> 00:22:53,320
strategy and strategic planning will 

613
00:22:53,320 --> 00:22:55,980
revolve around three areas . Taiwan , 

614
00:22:55,990 --> 00:22:58,010
the Sino Indian border on the South 

615
00:22:58,010 --> 00:23:00,240
China Sea . There's obviously a lot 

616
00:23:00,240 --> 00:23:02,680
happening on all three on . I want to 

617
00:23:02,680 --> 00:23:04,624
delve into them a little bit , but 

618
00:23:04,624 --> 00:23:06,680
before I do , I want to ask a little 

619
00:23:06,680 --> 00:23:08,791
bit about the emphasis in this year's 

620
00:23:08,791 --> 00:23:11,810
report on China's Desire Toe Act 

621
00:23:11,820 --> 00:23:14,290
globally , which is really a main focus , 

622
00:23:14,290 --> 00:23:16,290
at least in the first , a couple of 

623
00:23:16,290 --> 00:23:18,457
dozen pages . You know , there's a lot 

624
00:23:18,457 --> 00:23:20,679
of added texts that walks through where 

625
00:23:20,679 --> 00:23:22,901
China came from , especially back going 

626
00:23:22,901 --> 00:23:25,123
to 2000 and where , where it's headed . 

627
00:23:25,123 --> 00:23:27,870
So can you talk a little bit about How 

628
00:23:28,100 --> 00:23:30,044
have the Defense Department thinks 

629
00:23:30,044 --> 00:23:31,989
about China's regional role versus 

630
00:23:31,989 --> 00:23:34,240
global role and the degree to which the 

631
00:23:34,250 --> 00:23:38,070
P A is sort of prioritizing one over 

632
00:23:38,070 --> 00:23:41,270
the other ? Yeah , I can 

633
00:23:41,280 --> 00:23:43,800
e I think that that's ah really kind of 

634
00:23:43,800 --> 00:23:45,967
central point of a lot of our thinking 

635
00:23:45,967 --> 00:23:48,133
here within the department , certainly 

636
00:23:48,133 --> 00:23:50,730
within our office is is again going 

637
00:23:50,730 --> 00:23:52,952
back to where trying long from national 

638
00:23:52,952 --> 00:23:55,440
aspirations are is really the best tool 

639
00:23:55,440 --> 00:23:57,551
by which you can illuminate where you 

640
00:23:57,551 --> 00:23:59,980
see their military developing eso in 

641
00:23:59,980 --> 00:24:02,147
the near term . Certainly those things 

642
00:24:02,147 --> 00:24:04,369
that are hot they're directing on their 

643
00:24:04,369 --> 00:24:06,313
periphery , and particularly those 

644
00:24:06,313 --> 00:24:08,258
things that involve their national 

645
00:24:08,258 --> 00:24:10,480
interests of sovereignty , security and 

646
00:24:10,480 --> 00:24:12,424
developmental aspirations on those 

647
00:24:12,424 --> 00:24:14,536
geographic locations that right along 

648
00:24:14,536 --> 00:24:17,390
the periphery but will have been will 

649
00:24:17,390 --> 00:24:19,620
and will certainly continue to remain 

650
00:24:20,220 --> 00:24:22,498
priority efforts for them . But really , 

651
00:24:22,498 --> 00:24:24,109
where China's eyes are on is 

652
00:24:24,109 --> 00:24:26,220
understanding about how they're going 

653
00:24:26,220 --> 00:24:28,387
to contend , potentially react through 

654
00:24:28,387 --> 00:24:30,590
course of use of force for those but 

655
00:24:30,590 --> 00:24:32,423
their eyes long from on a global 

656
00:24:32,423 --> 00:24:34,670
capacity . When I was served as an 

657
00:24:34,710 --> 00:24:37,100
attache in Beijing , just , uh , just 

658
00:24:37,100 --> 00:24:40,200
over 10 years ago , just the thought 

659
00:24:40,200 --> 00:24:42,367
about the Chinese in terms of any kind 

660
00:24:42,367 --> 00:24:44,589
of power projection globally was almost 

661
00:24:44,589 --> 00:24:47,140
unthinkable . Just begun certainly had 

662
00:24:47,140 --> 00:24:48,807
been undertaking peacekeeping 

663
00:24:48,807 --> 00:24:50,973
operations on her human auspices for a 

664
00:24:50,973 --> 00:24:53,084
long period of time . But just taking 

665
00:24:53,084 --> 00:24:55,196
their first four raise you would note 

666
00:24:55,196 --> 00:24:57,196
that when they would even do a very 

667
00:24:57,196 --> 00:24:59,196
small sort of ships on some kind of 

668
00:24:59,196 --> 00:25:01,196
world tour , that was a significant 

669
00:25:01,196 --> 00:25:03,418
undertaking for them . Now , now that's 

670
00:25:03,418 --> 00:25:05,473
a routine practice , So these things 

671
00:25:05,473 --> 00:25:07,529
are changing in a very dynamic way . 

672
00:25:07,529 --> 00:25:07,310
Long term . It's for those bigger 

673
00:25:07,310 --> 00:25:09,520
aspirations , and so those those close 

674
00:25:09,520 --> 00:25:11,590
in issues that we study on a daily 

675
00:25:11,590 --> 00:25:13,812
basis will become one of many . I think 

676
00:25:13,812 --> 00:25:16,034
in the future that will necessity . And 

677
00:25:16,034 --> 00:25:18,312
as you raise China's military strategy , 

678
00:25:18,330 --> 00:25:20,470
the Chinese it's not clear that they 

679
00:25:20,470 --> 00:25:22,980
have updated their strategy . They have 

680
00:25:22,980 --> 00:25:25,147
Certainly Xi Jinping has provided very 

681
00:25:25,147 --> 00:25:27,820
clear direction both in 2018 2019 to 

682
00:25:27,820 --> 00:25:30,290
revise their military strategy . The pl 

683
00:25:30,290 --> 00:25:32,234
A themselves have told me that the 

684
00:25:32,234 --> 00:25:33,901
military strategy will remain 

685
00:25:33,901 --> 00:25:36,123
predicated on active defense . You know 

686
00:25:36,123 --> 00:25:38,346
that very term itself has modified , of 

687
00:25:38,346 --> 00:25:40,800
course , across the course of of the 

688
00:25:40,800 --> 00:25:43,790
police history , it does appear that 

689
00:25:43,790 --> 00:25:46,090
were either on the cusp , Bob or it's 

690
00:25:46,090 --> 00:25:48,201
already occurred that the trains will 

691
00:25:48,201 --> 00:25:50,368
have a new military strategy . What we 

692
00:25:50,368 --> 00:25:52,479
anticipate is that this moment , this 

693
00:25:52,479 --> 00:25:54,701
next military strategy from the Chinese 

694
00:25:54,701 --> 00:25:56,646
or the ones in the near term we'll 

695
00:25:56,646 --> 00:25:58,534
start to reflect the requirements 

696
00:25:58,534 --> 00:26:01,240
commanding control frameworks of a much 

697
00:26:01,240 --> 00:26:04,040
more ah broader regional approach or 

698
00:26:04,040 --> 00:26:06,040
even a global approach . But that's 

699
00:26:06,040 --> 00:26:08,262
where we know that they want to go over 

700
00:26:08,262 --> 00:26:10,484
the long term . And so we'll be looking 

701
00:26:10,484 --> 00:26:13,390
for those and coming back now , Teoh to 

702
00:26:13,390 --> 00:26:16,650
the region , and especially to you know , 

703
00:26:16,650 --> 00:26:18,872
some of the more contested areas I want 

704
00:26:18,872 --> 00:26:21,480
to ask first about Taiwan . Um , you 

705
00:26:21,480 --> 00:26:23,480
know so much news just the last few 

706
00:26:23,480 --> 00:26:25,910
weeks on Taiwan , of course . Yesterday , 

707
00:26:25,920 --> 00:26:27,920
Assistant Secretary of state , they 

708
00:26:27,920 --> 00:26:30,650
would so well declassified a set of 

709
00:26:30,650 --> 00:26:33,100
documents about the six assurances that 

710
00:26:33,100 --> 00:26:35,100
were provided to Taiwan all the way 

711
00:26:35,100 --> 00:26:37,870
back in 1982 and that was obviously an 

712
00:26:37,870 --> 00:26:40,350
effort toe decrease . A little bit of 

713
00:26:40,350 --> 00:26:42,990
the ambiguities surrounding us , 

714
00:26:43,000 --> 00:26:45,056
previous statements on Taiwan and to 

715
00:26:45,056 --> 00:26:48,130
Taiwan . Um , one thing that's notable 

716
00:26:48,140 --> 00:26:50,196
in this report is that there's a big 

717
00:26:50,196 --> 00:26:53,400
change in the cross trade balance and 

718
00:26:53,440 --> 00:26:56,040
ground forces , air and naval forces . 

719
00:26:56,050 --> 00:26:58,161
We see a little bit of a change . But 

720
00:26:58,161 --> 00:27:00,820
on the ground side last year , in the 

721
00:27:00,830 --> 00:27:03,280
2019 report , there was , ah , roughly 

722
00:27:03,280 --> 00:27:06,090
3 to 1 advantage on China's 

723
00:27:06,670 --> 00:27:09,950
edge of active ground forces in the 

724
00:27:09,950 --> 00:27:12,530
theater . And now that ratio is closer 

725
00:27:12,530 --> 00:27:14,910
to 5 to 1 in theater between China and 

726
00:27:14,910 --> 00:27:17,350
Taiwan . And if you look outside the 

727
00:27:17,350 --> 00:27:19,572
theater , the ratio goes all the way up 

728
00:27:19,572 --> 00:27:22,020
to 12 to 1 on . And I think this is 

729
00:27:22,130 --> 00:27:24,241
going to be something that's going to 

730
00:27:24,241 --> 00:27:26,408
obviously concern a lot of folks , not 

731
00:27:26,408 --> 00:27:28,630
just in United States but in Taipei and 

732
00:27:28,630 --> 00:27:30,630
elsewhere . Can you explain to us a 

733
00:27:30,630 --> 00:27:32,686
little bit about what these changing 

734
00:27:32,686 --> 00:27:34,800
dynamics mean for no potential time 

735
00:27:34,800 --> 00:27:37,180
horizons for trying to trying to 

736
00:27:37,180 --> 00:27:39,013
actually launched the potentials 

737
00:27:39,013 --> 00:27:41,610
invasion of Taiwan ? Do Chinese leaders 

738
00:27:41,620 --> 00:27:45,510
think that the time horizon is that the 

739
00:27:45,520 --> 00:27:48,570
window is opening or closing for a 

740
00:27:48,570 --> 00:27:51,010
potential invasion . And and I know , 

741
00:27:51,020 --> 00:27:53,242
you know , obviously we're seeing a lot 

742
00:27:53,242 --> 00:27:55,353
of reforms in Taiwan itself , and the 

743
00:27:55,353 --> 00:27:57,890
report goes into those as well . Onda 

744
00:27:57,890 --> 00:27:59,946
numbers I mentioned earlier , really 

745
00:27:59,946 --> 00:28:01,960
only talking about active forces 

746
00:28:01,960 --> 00:28:04,220
because obviously the Taiwan military 

747
00:28:04,220 --> 00:28:07,620
has shifted its structure 

748
00:28:07,620 --> 00:28:09,787
itself , and that's part of the reason 

749
00:28:09,787 --> 00:28:12,009
that we're seeing this change in the in 

750
00:28:12,009 --> 00:28:14,064
the ratio of ground forces . But can 

751
00:28:14,064 --> 00:28:16,231
you give us a sort of general sense of 

752
00:28:16,231 --> 00:28:18,610
how you think Chinese leaders see the 

753
00:28:18,620 --> 00:28:20,850
cross strait military balance and where 

754
00:28:20,850 --> 00:28:23,890
that balance is heading ? That's a 

755
00:28:24,280 --> 00:28:26,420
great question , Zack . We might have 

756
00:28:26,420 --> 00:28:29,340
to do about another five hours of your 

757
00:28:29,340 --> 00:28:32,400
actions to discuss that fully . But But 

758
00:28:32,410 --> 00:28:34,577
you know the starting point and really 

759
00:28:34,577 --> 00:28:36,910
the starting point of the report itself . 

760
00:28:36,910 --> 00:28:39,132
It is a very clear , very clearly draws 

761
00:28:39,132 --> 00:28:41,243
from authoritative commentary in this 

762
00:28:41,243 --> 00:28:43,243
case , the 19 party Congress report 

763
00:28:43,243 --> 00:28:45,299
where they explain , as they have in 

764
00:28:45,299 --> 00:28:47,243
the past , that the unification of 

765
00:28:47,243 --> 00:28:50,150
Taiwan , Hong Kong and Macau is central 

766
00:28:50,150 --> 00:28:52,372
component of China's long from national 

767
00:28:52,372 --> 00:28:54,428
aspirations . So they very laid that 

768
00:28:54,428 --> 00:28:56,539
marker down is that's the expectation 

769
00:28:57,750 --> 00:28:59,694
in terms of U . S . Policy , U . S 

770
00:28:59,694 --> 00:29:01,528
policy has not changed . I think 

771
00:29:01,528 --> 00:29:03,430
Secretary Stilwell mentioned that 

772
00:29:03,430 --> 00:29:06,080
yesterday as well is we have certain 

773
00:29:06,080 --> 00:29:08,302
communicated that to the Chinese is our 

774
00:29:08,302 --> 00:29:12,140
policy remains consistent , and but we 

775
00:29:12,140 --> 00:29:14,150
certainly have ah requirement to 

776
00:29:14,150 --> 00:29:15,761
continue to communicate that 

777
00:29:15,761 --> 00:29:17,872
effectively to the Chinese and others 

778
00:29:17,890 --> 00:29:20,430
about what that policy is in terms of 

779
00:29:20,430 --> 00:29:22,208
the cross strait balance . That 

780
00:29:22,208 --> 00:29:24,319
certainly drives us that we know that 

781
00:29:24,319 --> 00:29:26,208
in the opening aspect the opening 

782
00:29:26,208 --> 00:29:28,041
chapters of the National Defense 

783
00:29:28,041 --> 00:29:29,986
Strategy we talked about that as a 

784
00:29:29,986 --> 00:29:31,930
motivating aspect of where current 

785
00:29:31,930 --> 00:29:34,041
national strategy is national defense 

786
00:29:34,041 --> 00:29:36,263
strategies . That which is the ultimate 

787
00:29:36,263 --> 00:29:38,097
erosion of military capacities , 

788
00:29:38,097 --> 00:29:40,319
defense capacities by the United States 

789
00:29:40,319 --> 00:29:42,374
and the desire to close them . And I 

790
00:29:42,374 --> 00:29:44,430
can tell you , is that the secretary 

791
00:29:44,430 --> 00:29:46,763
and everybody in the department is , uh , 

792
00:29:46,763 --> 00:29:48,874
intensely focused on doing so . Those 

793
00:29:48,874 --> 00:29:50,763
lines of effort are clear . We're 

794
00:29:50,763 --> 00:29:52,760
acting on them on , and there's 

795
00:29:52,770 --> 00:29:54,980
certainly very powerful and strong 

796
00:29:54,980 --> 00:29:56,924
indications of how those those air 

797
00:29:56,924 --> 00:29:59,036
working and I think effectively , and 

798
00:29:59,036 --> 00:30:01,091
certainly not least of which is from 

799
00:30:01,091 --> 00:30:03,313
the Chinese themselves who who see that 

800
00:30:03,313 --> 00:30:05,369
they see the systemic transformation 

801
00:30:05,369 --> 00:30:07,480
that the department's undertaking the 

802
00:30:07,480 --> 00:30:09,702
Cross Street about balance is certainly 

803
00:30:09,702 --> 00:30:11,758
a crucial element of that , um , you 

804
00:30:11,758 --> 00:30:13,591
raised the numbers in particular 

805
00:30:13,591 --> 00:30:15,647
certainly are caution is that number 

806
00:30:15,647 --> 00:30:17,758
zehr one aspect of that . But this is 

807
00:30:17,758 --> 00:30:19,610
part of holistic maternity . The 

808
00:30:19,610 --> 00:30:21,777
Chinese themselves have reduced forces 

809
00:30:22,740 --> 00:30:24,907
under the current reform efforts , but 

810
00:30:24,907 --> 00:30:27,370
not as a a symbol of lessening 

811
00:30:27,370 --> 00:30:30,130
capability , our capacities , but in 

812
00:30:30,130 --> 00:30:32,270
fact making better investments long 

813
00:30:32,270 --> 00:30:34,940
term about sharpening what those forces 

814
00:30:34,940 --> 00:30:37,162
are with who they're composed of , what 

815
00:30:37,162 --> 00:30:39,162
their mission sets are . So I would 

816
00:30:39,162 --> 00:30:41,384
only caution the numbers have changed . 

817
00:30:41,384 --> 00:30:43,496
They there are in the report from the 

818
00:30:43,496 --> 00:30:45,607
Taiwan's perspective . It's certainly 

819
00:30:45,607 --> 00:30:47,662
better to ask the Taiwan authorities 

820
00:30:47,662 --> 00:30:49,773
about with their view of that is from 

821
00:30:49,773 --> 00:30:51,829
our perspective is to ensure that we 

822
00:30:51,829 --> 00:30:54,620
stand ready and any condition based on 

823
00:30:54,620 --> 00:30:56,842
the president's direction . And I think 

824
00:30:56,842 --> 00:30:59,300
that certainly we're headed the aim 

825
00:30:59,300 --> 00:31:01,522
here . I think from all sides to do the 

826
00:31:01,522 --> 00:31:03,411
Chinese is is that the worst case 

827
00:31:03,411 --> 00:31:05,522
scenario is conflict , and that's not 

828
00:31:05,522 --> 00:31:07,522
where anybody wants to go . I think 

829
00:31:07,522 --> 00:31:09,522
certainly that's our view . I think 

830
00:31:09,522 --> 00:31:11,689
that that's what the Chinese view is , 

831
00:31:11,689 --> 00:31:13,633
and , uh , the best way to do that 

832
00:31:13,633 --> 00:31:15,744
isn't sure that we're always prepared 

833
00:31:15,744 --> 00:31:18,680
and ready . Absolutely , and it's uh , 

834
00:31:18,690 --> 00:31:20,690
1 30 so I want to start bringing in 

835
00:31:20,690 --> 00:31:22,912
some audience questions . We've got one 

836
00:31:22,912 --> 00:31:24,857
on this specific topic from Bonnie 

837
00:31:24,857 --> 00:31:26,912
Glaser over the Center for Strategic 

838
00:31:26,912 --> 00:31:29,079
International Studies . She has . What 

839
00:31:29,079 --> 00:31:31,190
is your assessment of the appeal ? Is 

840
00:31:31,190 --> 00:31:33,301
current capability to seizing control 

841
00:31:33,301 --> 00:31:35,134
Taiwan ? Do they have sufficient 

842
00:31:35,134 --> 00:31:37,357
amphibious landing capability ? And can 

843
00:31:37,357 --> 00:31:39,579
you talk at all about what deficiencies 

844
00:31:39,579 --> 00:31:42,210
exist that the delay has yet to master 

845
00:31:42,220 --> 00:31:44,331
for that type of convention ? See , I 

846
00:31:44,331 --> 00:31:46,553
know some of this obviously is going to 

847
00:31:46,553 --> 00:31:48,776
be difficult for you to talk about in a 

848
00:31:48,776 --> 00:31:48,650
public setting . But whatever you could 

849
00:31:48,650 --> 00:31:52,430
say , I think we appreciate Yeah , 

850
00:31:52,430 --> 00:31:54,430
that's a great question . Certainly 

851
00:31:54,430 --> 00:31:56,374
it's , uh , you know , the Defense 

852
00:31:56,374 --> 00:31:58,541
Department gets paid to assess risk on 

853
00:31:58,541 --> 00:32:00,541
a daily basis on DSO . We try to do 

854
00:32:00,541 --> 00:32:02,374
that , and , uh , I think pretty 

855
00:32:02,374 --> 00:32:04,486
successfully . It's , uh , it's not a 

856
00:32:04,486 --> 00:32:05,986
simple question . It's not 

857
00:32:05,986 --> 00:32:08,590
uncomplicated question , but what I can 

858
00:32:08,590 --> 00:32:10,840
say in , you know , going back to some 

859
00:32:10,840 --> 00:32:13,007
of the opening comments is it's always 

860
00:32:13,007 --> 00:32:15,173
based best and start by taking stock . 

861
00:32:15,173 --> 00:32:17,284
Of what the Chinese think the Chinese 

862
00:32:17,284 --> 00:32:19,229
had , 2020 is critical not only in 

863
00:32:19,229 --> 00:32:21,451
terms of how many reports we've put out 

864
00:32:21,451 --> 00:32:23,562
from the Defense Department that 2020 

865
00:32:23,562 --> 00:32:25,562
served as a critical marker for the 

866
00:32:25,562 --> 00:32:27,510
Chinese . The pill a themselves as 

867
00:32:27,510 --> 00:32:29,677
directed by the party leadership . And 

868
00:32:29,677 --> 00:32:32,260
that was a period which they started 

869
00:32:32,260 --> 00:32:34,550
moving away from a requirement or 

870
00:32:34,560 --> 00:32:37,790
capacity limited to blockading to now , 

871
00:32:37,790 --> 00:32:40,560
including the capacity to dio full 

872
00:32:40,560 --> 00:32:42,720
scale amphibious assaults on Taiwan 

873
00:32:43,200 --> 00:32:45,256
based on what they've mentioned , in 

874
00:32:45,256 --> 00:32:47,422
fact , in their own 2019 defence white 

875
00:32:47,422 --> 00:32:49,589
paper is that they still have not made 

876
00:32:49,589 --> 00:32:51,756
the full transition into being able to 

877
00:32:51,756 --> 00:32:53,867
reach that capacity . But in any case 

878
00:32:53,867 --> 00:32:55,978
that that's what their pursuit of and 

879
00:32:55,978 --> 00:32:58,033
they work very hard on . It's always 

880
00:32:58,033 --> 00:33:00,200
difficult to lay out all the different 

881
00:33:00,200 --> 00:33:02,367
variables and how that might impact in 

882
00:33:02,367 --> 00:33:04,478
any kind of scenario . I don't know , 

883
00:33:04,478 --> 00:33:06,700
and I and I am certain that comfortable 

884
00:33:06,700 --> 00:33:08,756
speculating on what those might look 

885
00:33:08,756 --> 00:33:10,811
like , I do know is that the Chinese 

886
00:33:10,811 --> 00:33:13,080
have an aspiration to have the complete 

887
00:33:13,080 --> 00:33:15,160
suite of coercion and compelling as 

888
00:33:15,160 --> 00:33:18,270
tools at hands to change the condition 

889
00:33:18,270 --> 00:33:21,750
as they see fit . That's where we come 

890
00:33:21,750 --> 00:33:24,270
in , which is to help ensure that those 

891
00:33:24,270 --> 00:33:26,326
conditions don't change in the favor 

892
00:33:26,326 --> 00:33:29,960
for them . Great . I'll turn now toe 

893
00:33:29,970 --> 00:33:31,803
India . We've gotten a couple of 

894
00:33:31,803 --> 00:33:34,240
questions on the Sino Indian border 

895
00:33:34,240 --> 00:33:35,740
standoff , which obviously 

896
00:33:35,740 --> 00:33:37,962
unfortunately , looks like it's heating 

897
00:33:37,962 --> 00:33:40,530
back up in the last few days on the 

898
00:33:40,540 --> 00:33:42,460
report , I thought was quite 

899
00:33:42,470 --> 00:33:45,000
interesting in this regard . Folks that 

900
00:33:45,000 --> 00:33:47,056
are just in the middle of reading it 

901
00:33:47,056 --> 00:33:49,222
will have to remember that this is the 

902
00:33:49,222 --> 00:33:51,389
2020 report , but it looks in China in 

903
00:33:51,389 --> 00:33:53,444
2019 . So you're not going to find a 

904
00:33:53,444 --> 00:33:56,640
big section on what's been going on the 

905
00:33:56,640 --> 00:33:58,584
last few months on the Sino Indian 

906
00:33:58,584 --> 00:34:01,290
border . But nonetheless , you know , 

907
00:34:01,440 --> 00:34:03,607
there's there's a comment in here with 

908
00:34:03,607 --> 00:34:05,829
Struck me , which is that in practice , 

909
00:34:05,829 --> 00:34:08,051
the purest see often favors dialogues , 

910
00:34:08,051 --> 00:34:10,107
a power play and as a means of using 

911
00:34:10,107 --> 00:34:11,996
political , economic and military 

912
00:34:11,996 --> 00:34:14,480
coercion rather than force . And you 

913
00:34:14,480 --> 00:34:17,130
know , this year we've really seen that 

914
00:34:17,130 --> 00:34:19,297
shift pretty substantially on the Sino 

915
00:34:19,297 --> 00:34:21,074
Indian border in a way that has 

916
00:34:21,074 --> 00:34:23,670
surprised a lot of us . Uh and so one 

917
00:34:23,670 --> 00:34:25,726
of the questions that we got asked , 

918
00:34:25,800 --> 00:34:27,744
How do you see India strengths and 

919
00:34:27,744 --> 00:34:29,856
weaknesses of potential counterweight 

920
00:34:29,856 --> 00:34:32,210
to China and know how does Beijing see 

921
00:34:32,210 --> 00:34:35,040
India ? Andi , how is that playing into 

922
00:34:35,040 --> 00:34:37,207
this border standoff that's been going 

923
00:34:37,207 --> 00:34:39,540
on for now ? I guess a couple of months . 

924
00:34:41,260 --> 00:34:44,930
Yeah , the the as you lay out there , I 

925
00:34:44,930 --> 00:34:47,780
think , very clearly is that the the 

926
00:34:47,780 --> 00:34:50,002
line of control over the border issue . 

927
00:34:50,002 --> 00:34:51,947
The disagreements over sovereignty 

928
00:34:51,947 --> 00:34:55,010
claims by both sides is certainly part 

929
00:34:55,010 --> 00:34:57,121
of a much more holistic picture about 

930
00:34:57,440 --> 00:34:59,273
relations were at large and then 

931
00:34:59,273 --> 00:35:01,440
certainly have those relations comport 

932
00:35:01,440 --> 00:35:03,551
with broader international activities 

933
00:35:03,551 --> 00:35:05,718
and other relationships , not least of 

934
00:35:05,718 --> 00:35:07,773
which is with the United States . So 

935
00:35:07,773 --> 00:35:09,940
it's in the United States interests is 

936
00:35:09,940 --> 00:35:11,829
that these matters air peacefully 

937
00:35:11,829 --> 00:35:13,884
resolved . I think we've stated that 

938
00:35:13,884 --> 00:35:15,940
very clearly . It certainly has been 

939
00:35:15,940 --> 00:35:17,940
demonstrated through indications by 

940
00:35:17,940 --> 00:35:19,884
leadership on both sides trying in 

941
00:35:19,884 --> 00:35:21,996
India for an aspiration and desire to 

942
00:35:21,996 --> 00:35:24,218
do so , not least of which , for what I 

943
00:35:24,218 --> 00:35:26,107
watch is the Chinese expressing a 

944
00:35:26,107 --> 00:35:28,218
desire to have peaceful resolution of 

945
00:35:28,218 --> 00:35:31,240
this of the current tensions Long term , 

946
00:35:31,240 --> 00:35:33,407
the Chinese have certainly endeavoured 

947
00:35:33,407 --> 00:35:35,500
to cultivate India . I think for 

948
00:35:35,500 --> 00:35:37,930
several reasons , one is to mitigate 

949
00:35:37,930 --> 00:35:40,152
their own risk that they have and he is 

950
00:35:40,152 --> 00:35:43,010
not a insignificant actor in the 

951
00:35:43,010 --> 00:35:46,570
international environment , certainly 

952
00:35:46,570 --> 00:35:48,681
butts right up against China in areas 

953
00:35:48,681 --> 00:35:50,681
where the Chinese feel that they're 

954
00:35:50,681 --> 00:35:52,514
both vulnerable . And I'm highly 

955
00:35:52,514 --> 00:35:55,320
sensitive . Um , I think that they have 

956
00:35:55,320 --> 00:35:58,180
not . They have felt that the the 

957
00:35:58,180 --> 00:36:00,291
Indians have not reciprocated to them 

958
00:36:00,630 --> 00:36:04,000
as's fully , which , UM , there's good 

959
00:36:04,000 --> 00:36:06,830
reasons why . I would say we have 

960
00:36:06,830 --> 00:36:09,610
certainly talked to the Indians and and 

961
00:36:09,610 --> 00:36:11,221
I don't want to get into the 

962
00:36:11,221 --> 00:36:13,443
discussions . There are aspects of what 

963
00:36:13,443 --> 00:36:15,499
we said to them , but certainly writ 

964
00:36:15,499 --> 00:36:17,721
large is there's very clear aspirations 

965
00:36:17,721 --> 00:36:19,554
that we have is for improved and 

966
00:36:19,554 --> 00:36:21,554
increased and expanded relationship 

967
00:36:21,554 --> 00:36:24,000
with India . There certainly , ah , 

968
00:36:24,010 --> 00:36:25,899
core element of the international 

969
00:36:25,899 --> 00:36:28,010
environment , large ItT's partnership 

970
00:36:28,010 --> 00:36:30,232
that we've always endeavoured to expand 

971
00:36:30,232 --> 00:36:34,230
on and will continue to do so , Um , in 

972
00:36:34,230 --> 00:36:36,286
the near term , there's certainly no 

973
00:36:36,286 --> 00:36:38,397
desire by any part . I think , is the 

974
00:36:38,397 --> 00:36:40,230
extent have this exacerbate , er 

975
00:36:40,230 --> 00:36:42,310
escalating crisis for conflict . But 

976
00:36:42,650 --> 00:36:44,872
But we're continuing to closely monitor 

977
00:36:44,872 --> 00:36:47,039
that and watch that and certainly work 

978
00:36:47,040 --> 00:36:50,050
efforts on all sides to t bring this 

979
00:36:50,050 --> 00:36:53,040
back to negotiate a settlement here 

980
00:36:54,840 --> 00:36:58,620
and then the final flashpoint that 

981
00:36:58,630 --> 00:37:00,686
that's often discussed has been self 

982
00:37:00,686 --> 00:37:04,480
trying to see . The report 

983
00:37:04,480 --> 00:37:06,536
mentions the South trying to see and 

984
00:37:06,536 --> 00:37:08,702
goes through some of the challenges in 

985
00:37:08,702 --> 00:37:10,813
detail . This is , you know , all the 

986
00:37:10,813 --> 00:37:12,924
more interesting the last week or two 

987
00:37:12,924 --> 00:37:15,036
because we've seen a lot of action in 

988
00:37:15,036 --> 00:37:17,147
the South China Sea . We saw missiles 

989
00:37:17,147 --> 00:37:19,370
shot into the South China Sea by by the 

990
00:37:19,380 --> 00:37:21,960
P L . A . There's a new , interesting 

991
00:37:21,960 --> 00:37:24,280
South China Morning Post article , 

992
00:37:24,280 --> 00:37:26,447
which stated that Beijing had actually 

993
00:37:26,447 --> 00:37:28,670
instructed the Chinese military not to 

994
00:37:28,670 --> 00:37:30,892
fire the first shot against the U . S . 

995
00:37:30,892 --> 00:37:33,230
Military . Whether that applied against 

996
00:37:33,240 --> 00:37:35,407
China's neighbors , I think , was much 

997
00:37:35,407 --> 00:37:38,100
less clear . And then , of course , 

998
00:37:38,100 --> 00:37:40,160
last week the State Department and 

999
00:37:40,160 --> 00:37:42,160
Commerce Department put a series of 

1000
00:37:42,160 --> 00:37:45,270
restrictions on US exports 

1001
00:37:45,640 --> 00:37:48,890
Teoh CC CC , which has been involved 

1002
00:37:48,890 --> 00:37:51,168
with much of the dredging in the south . 

1003
00:37:51,168 --> 00:37:53,168
China's Teoh . So attention is just 

1004
00:37:53,168 --> 00:37:55,334
continuing . There is , they have been 

1005
00:37:55,334 --> 00:37:57,830
for the last six years or so . I'm 

1006
00:37:57,840 --> 00:38:00,007
wondering if you can talk a little bit 

1007
00:38:00,007 --> 00:38:02,118
about the direction that China milk . 

1008
00:38:02,118 --> 00:38:04,020
China's military readers might be 

1009
00:38:04,020 --> 00:38:06,242
heading there . You know , there's been 

1010
00:38:06,242 --> 00:38:08,464
a lot of discussion about the potential 

1011
00:38:08,464 --> 00:38:10,298
for the announcement of straight 

1012
00:38:10,298 --> 00:38:12,353
baselines around the Spratly Islands 

1013
00:38:12,353 --> 00:38:14,580
about on air defense identification 

1014
00:38:14,580 --> 00:38:16,770
zone that might cover cover parts of 

1015
00:38:16,770 --> 00:38:19,210
the South China Sea . Obviously , we 

1016
00:38:19,210 --> 00:38:21,266
haven't seen that in the last year , 

1017
00:38:21,266 --> 00:38:23,210
but if you could talk a little bit 

1018
00:38:23,210 --> 00:38:25,266
about the direction that things were 

1019
00:38:25,266 --> 00:38:27,432
headed in the South China Sea . Andi . 

1020
00:38:27,432 --> 00:38:29,654
Some of what Chinese leaders are trying 

1021
00:38:29,654 --> 00:38:29,440
to do there . That would be great , 

1022
00:38:30,450 --> 00:38:32,672
that that that's a great question . You 

1023
00:38:32,672 --> 00:38:35,100
should be attentive to that . We 

1024
00:38:35,100 --> 00:38:38,820
certainly are . Um , I I'll 

1025
00:38:38,820 --> 00:38:40,931
start with Is there didn't used to be 

1026
00:38:40,931 --> 00:38:42,931
this much time ? Ultimate Section C 

1027
00:38:42,931 --> 00:38:45,110
it's This was really the result of the 

1028
00:38:45,120 --> 00:38:47,231
conditions that the Chinese undertook 

1029
00:38:47,231 --> 00:38:49,453
both through their private endeavours , 

1030
00:38:49,453 --> 00:38:51,342
as you mentioned the construction 

1031
00:38:51,342 --> 00:38:53,564
company that helped manufacture islands 

1032
00:38:53,564 --> 00:38:55,731
out of out of nothing that the refusal 

1033
00:38:55,731 --> 00:38:57,620
of China to delimit its claims in 

1034
00:38:57,620 --> 00:38:59,787
accordance with the U . N . Convention 

1035
00:38:59,787 --> 00:39:02,230
on the Law of the Sea auspices and 

1036
00:39:02,320 --> 00:39:04,431
which would have been the right thing 

1037
00:39:04,431 --> 00:39:06,653
to do . They have not have continued to 

1038
00:39:06,653 --> 00:39:08,542
argue Ah and put forward claims . 

1039
00:39:08,542 --> 00:39:10,264
They're just inconsistent with 

1040
00:39:10,264 --> 00:39:12,320
international law . That's certainly 

1041
00:39:12,320 --> 00:39:12,010
one of the aspect that we've talked to 

1042
00:39:12,010 --> 00:39:14,066
the Chinese about at multiple levels 

1043
00:39:14,066 --> 00:39:15,843
within the department and other 

1044
00:39:15,843 --> 00:39:18,590
departments , which is just inability 

1045
00:39:18,590 --> 00:39:20,701
to follow international law rules and 

1046
00:39:20,701 --> 00:39:23,450
norms , and further is that they seem 

1047
00:39:23,450 --> 00:39:25,870
to not be able to honor the commitments 

1048
00:39:25,870 --> 00:39:27,814
and arrangements they've made with 

1049
00:39:27,814 --> 00:39:29,759
others , not least of which is the 

1050
00:39:29,759 --> 00:39:31,926
negotiations about the code of conduct 

1051
00:39:31,926 --> 00:39:34,092
down there are presidents , operations 

1052
00:39:34,092 --> 00:39:36,620
are something and activities in the 

1053
00:39:36,620 --> 00:39:40,160
South China Sea I've called and between 

1054
00:39:40,160 --> 00:39:41,938
with our leadership have called 

1055
00:39:41,938 --> 00:39:44,220
repeatedly upon the Chinese the P l A . 

1056
00:39:44,220 --> 00:39:48,140
The PRC writ large to to limit the 

1057
00:39:48,140 --> 00:39:50,362
activities of what they're doing to not 

1058
00:39:50,362 --> 00:39:52,529
militarise their features toe the halt 

1059
00:39:52,529 --> 00:39:54,530
These really unlawful practices in 

1060
00:39:54,540 --> 00:39:56,429
expectations they hold for us and 

1061
00:39:56,429 --> 00:39:59,740
others . Uh , we have as a result , um , 

1062
00:40:00,610 --> 00:40:02,940
increased the r d o d activity , 

1063
00:40:02,940 --> 00:40:04,980
particular military operations and 

1064
00:40:04,980 --> 00:40:06,980
activities in the South China Sea , 

1065
00:40:06,980 --> 00:40:09,770
both by ourselves and in coordination 

1066
00:40:09,770 --> 00:40:12,610
with others in the region on globally , 

1067
00:40:12,910 --> 00:40:15,120
and will continue to do so because 

1068
00:40:15,130 --> 00:40:17,340
really our commitments to the free and 

1069
00:40:17,340 --> 00:40:19,810
open Indo Pacific writ large the free 

1070
00:40:19,810 --> 00:40:22,170
and open international order . And when 

1071
00:40:22,170 --> 00:40:23,892
we say we're committed , we're 

1072
00:40:23,892 --> 00:40:25,892
committed and we're all in . I know 

1073
00:40:25,892 --> 00:40:28,003
that doesn't make the Chinese happy . 

1074
00:40:28,003 --> 00:40:27,910
They tell me that personally and 

1075
00:40:27,910 --> 00:40:30,077
certainly others and leadership here , 

1076
00:40:30,110 --> 00:40:31,888
but that's where we're at . The 

1077
00:40:31,888 --> 00:40:33,888
expectation is that there's there's 

1078
00:40:33,888 --> 00:40:35,999
rules of the Internet and laws of the 

1079
00:40:35,999 --> 00:40:37,721
international system , and our 

1080
00:40:37,721 --> 00:40:39,943
expectations are for the Chinese Stop . 

1081
00:40:39,943 --> 00:40:42,166
Hold that to the degree that they don't 

1082
00:40:42,166 --> 00:40:44,110
what they'll faces an increasingly 

1083
00:40:44,110 --> 00:40:46,166
network region that response to them 

1084
00:40:46,166 --> 00:40:48,221
high , hopefully in in collaboration 

1085
00:40:48,221 --> 00:40:50,388
and coordination with them . But if if 

1086
00:40:50,388 --> 00:40:52,610
need be to compete with them as exactly 

1087
00:40:52,610 --> 00:40:54,777
what the heart of our strategy is , so 

1088
00:40:54,777 --> 00:40:56,777
we'll see that more specific to the 

1089
00:40:56,777 --> 00:40:58,888
exercise last week . The Chinese have 

1090
00:40:58,888 --> 00:41:01,110
an ongoing national level exercise that 

1091
00:41:01,110 --> 00:41:02,888
includes all five theaters that 

1092
00:41:02,888 --> 00:41:05,054
includes activities in the South China 

1093
00:41:05,054 --> 00:41:07,166
Sea , East China Sea , Yellow Sea and 

1094
00:41:07,166 --> 00:41:09,277
Bohai Gulf . Those missile shots were 

1095
00:41:09,277 --> 00:41:11,443
actually done as a component of a very 

1096
00:41:11,443 --> 00:41:13,777
high level national level exercise , Um , 

1097
00:41:13,777 --> 00:41:16,550
but certainly the one critical aspect 

1098
00:41:16,550 --> 00:41:18,606
of that was the degree to which that 

1099
00:41:18,606 --> 00:41:20,940
that sense not only broader message of 

1100
00:41:20,940 --> 00:41:22,773
where China wants to go with its 

1101
00:41:22,773 --> 00:41:25,660
military , but it's inescapable about 

1102
00:41:25,660 --> 00:41:27,882
the closure areas and the missile shots 

1103
00:41:27,882 --> 00:41:29,938
and the other high end activity that 

1104
00:41:29,938 --> 00:41:32,104
they placed in that region didn't need 

1105
00:41:32,104 --> 00:41:31,830
to be there . They've done that on 

1106
00:41:31,830 --> 00:41:34,210
purpose , and certainly an element of 

1107
00:41:34,210 --> 00:41:36,266
that is it's an unhelpful and really 

1108
00:41:36,266 --> 00:41:38,700
intrusive elements of coercion 

1109
00:41:39,520 --> 00:41:41,760
from multiple actors , not least of 

1110
00:41:41,760 --> 00:41:44,920
which is other claimants in the trying 

1111
00:41:44,920 --> 00:41:47,190
to see in Southeast Asia that we don't 

1112
00:41:47,190 --> 00:41:49,412
understand why they're trying to choose 

1113
00:41:49,412 --> 00:41:52,320
to do that , it's it seems , um 

1114
00:41:53,080 --> 00:41:55,400
uh to be really just not constructive 

1115
00:41:55,400 --> 00:41:57,990
toe where the they're steady . Claims 

1116
00:41:57,990 --> 00:42:00,530
for their aspirations are reach 

1117
00:42:00,530 --> 00:42:03,820
peaceful negotiations . But here we are 

1118
00:42:03,820 --> 00:42:05,876
again with the Chinese , continue to 

1119
00:42:06,060 --> 00:42:08,282
take those actions even after they were 

1120
00:42:08,282 --> 00:42:10,393
cautioned , not do so and had pledged 

1121
00:42:10,393 --> 00:42:13,870
to avoid doing Yeah , um , I'm gonna 

1122
00:42:13,870 --> 00:42:16,140
turn now toe Siris of audience 

1123
00:42:16,140 --> 00:42:18,084
questions on a couple of different 

1124
00:42:18,084 --> 00:42:21,190
issues , So I know you'll have toe be 

1125
00:42:21,190 --> 00:42:23,420
flexible with us as we jump around Eso 

1126
00:42:23,420 --> 00:42:25,531
The first is from Eric Schmidt at The 

1127
00:42:25,531 --> 00:42:27,198
New York Times . He knows the 

1128
00:42:27,198 --> 00:42:30,070
possibility of f 35 sales , the U A . E . 

1129
00:42:30,070 --> 00:42:32,230
And asked , How concerned are you in 

1130
00:42:32,230 --> 00:42:34,397
the Defense Department that such sales 

1131
00:42:34,397 --> 00:42:36,452
could risk the transfer of sensitive 

1132
00:42:36,452 --> 00:42:38,890
technology to China ? Um , which is 

1133
00:42:38,890 --> 00:42:41,150
obviously deepen ties with you A . In 

1134
00:42:41,150 --> 00:42:43,094
recent years . What steps could be 

1135
00:42:43,094 --> 00:42:45,800
taken to mitigate that risk ? Andi , 

1136
00:42:45,810 --> 00:42:47,866
maybe if you could talk a little bit 

1137
00:42:47,866 --> 00:42:49,699
more about the delays technology 

1138
00:42:49,699 --> 00:42:51,810
transfer efforts , it's a big part of 

1139
00:42:51,810 --> 00:42:53,920
the report . That's ah gets a large 

1140
00:42:53,920 --> 00:42:56,970
section appropriately . So s over to 

1141
00:42:56,970 --> 00:42:59,160
you on that issue . Yeah , that's a 

1142
00:42:59,160 --> 00:43:01,160
great question . I think that's one 

1143
00:43:01,160 --> 00:43:03,271
that , of course , the new missile or 

1144
00:43:03,271 --> 00:43:05,382
new aircraft carrier or something has 

1145
00:43:05,382 --> 00:43:07,160
always drives a lot of people's 

1146
00:43:07,160 --> 00:43:09,382
attention . But a lot of the activities 

1147
00:43:09,382 --> 00:43:09,120
of the department in particular , and 

1148
00:43:09,120 --> 00:43:11,630
all of the interagency writ large have 

1149
00:43:11,640 --> 00:43:14,900
have been in in some cases of the 

1150
00:43:14,910 --> 00:43:16,980
greatest function have been in areas 

1151
00:43:16,980 --> 00:43:18,702
like this , where we made more 

1152
00:43:18,702 --> 00:43:20,813
concentrated efforts to both identify 

1153
00:43:20,813 --> 00:43:24,020
and understand how the Chinese act the 

1154
00:43:24,020 --> 00:43:26,242
interactions , particularly through the 

1155
00:43:26,242 --> 00:43:28,131
military civil fusion development 

1156
00:43:28,131 --> 00:43:30,187
strategy and what those implications 

1157
00:43:30,187 --> 00:43:32,242
are . And we've identified those you 

1158
00:43:32,242 --> 00:43:34,298
noted in the previous question about 

1159
00:43:34,298 --> 00:43:36,298
state and I think in commerce , and 

1160
00:43:36,298 --> 00:43:38,298
some of the actions that have taken 

1161
00:43:38,298 --> 00:43:40,298
were working in concert with them , 

1162
00:43:40,298 --> 00:43:42,409
literally on a daily basis . A Czar , 

1163
00:43:42,409 --> 00:43:44,353
12 37 reporting out of the Defense 

1164
00:43:44,353 --> 00:43:46,530
Department has demonstrated about 

1165
00:43:46,530 --> 00:43:48,419
helping identifying companies and 

1166
00:43:48,419 --> 00:43:50,308
entities and with those risks and 

1167
00:43:50,308 --> 00:43:52,660
working very hard to mitigate those 

1168
00:43:52,660 --> 00:43:54,882
risks . There's more attention on those 

1169
00:43:54,882 --> 00:43:56,993
now than ever . We're actually taking 

1170
00:43:56,993 --> 00:43:58,938
action on those , and I think it's 

1171
00:43:58,938 --> 00:44:01,160
important and very powerful statement , 

1172
00:44:01,160 --> 00:44:03,216
certainly for China and others , and 

1173
00:44:03,216 --> 00:44:05,630
it's having a very clear effect that 

1174
00:44:05,640 --> 00:44:09,360
also falls under really a broader set 

1175
00:44:09,360 --> 00:44:12,120
of issues . And Eric's question is 

1176
00:44:13,290 --> 00:44:15,346
the department defense certainly has 

1177
00:44:15,346 --> 00:44:17,568
robust controls and procedures in place 

1178
00:44:17,568 --> 00:44:19,790
to protect US weapons systems and their 

1179
00:44:19,790 --> 00:44:21,901
technology . We watched Those symbols 

1180
00:44:21,901 --> 00:44:23,957
are very traditional processes which 

1181
00:44:23,957 --> 00:44:26,830
are well known , but we've incorporated 

1182
00:44:26,830 --> 00:44:28,830
some new ones as well . Obviously , 

1183
00:44:28,830 --> 00:44:30,886
China's is a uniquely aggressive and 

1184
00:44:30,886 --> 00:44:32,830
capable adversary when it comes to 

1185
00:44:32,830 --> 00:44:35,163
protecting our military technology edge . 

1186
00:44:35,163 --> 00:44:37,386
Our allies and partners , including the 

1187
00:44:37,386 --> 00:44:39,552
U . A , are required to meet extremely 

1188
00:44:39,552 --> 00:44:41,719
high standards of security in order to 

1189
00:44:41,719 --> 00:44:43,774
acquiring deploy these systems . And 

1190
00:44:43,774 --> 00:44:45,830
we've instituted both more pragmatic 

1191
00:44:45,830 --> 00:44:47,774
help to our allies and partners to 

1192
00:44:47,774 --> 00:44:49,552
understand that improving their 

1193
00:44:49,552 --> 00:44:51,497
processes through Citius and other 

1194
00:44:51,497 --> 00:44:53,719
kinds of security cooperation practices 

1195
00:44:53,719 --> 00:44:55,886
and have begun undertaken more efforts 

1196
00:44:55,886 --> 00:44:57,886
to work with allies and partners on 

1197
00:44:57,886 --> 00:45:00,052
sharing best practices were export and 

1198
00:45:00,052 --> 00:45:01,774
import controls , oversight of 

1199
00:45:01,774 --> 00:45:03,830
technology transfers and making sure 

1200
00:45:03,830 --> 00:45:05,997
that we have all the best practices in 

1201
00:45:05,997 --> 00:45:08,163
place . So you'll continue to see that 

1202
00:45:08,163 --> 00:45:10,163
built up . It's obviously having an 

1203
00:45:10,163 --> 00:45:12,386
effect on the China as we speak and way 

1204
00:45:12,386 --> 00:45:14,552
anticipated will continue to have ah , 

1205
00:45:14,552 --> 00:45:17,330
broader effect . As time goes on right . 

1206
00:45:17,330 --> 00:45:19,108
I want to rent a couple of very 

1207
00:45:19,108 --> 00:45:21,274
specific points on nuclear and missile 

1208
00:45:21,274 --> 00:45:23,600
forces from some of the questioners eso 

1209
00:45:23,600 --> 00:45:25,656
it may just be that you can't answer 

1210
00:45:25,656 --> 00:45:27,711
these or can't do so in this forum , 

1211
00:45:27,711 --> 00:45:29,767
and in which case , just let us know 

1212
00:45:29,767 --> 00:45:31,878
and we'll move on . The first is from 

1213
00:45:31,878 --> 00:45:34,980
Takeshi Kawahara , NHK in Japan , who 

1214
00:45:34,980 --> 00:45:37,460
asked the This report , as I stated , 

1215
00:45:37,460 --> 00:45:39,970
has something above 200 below to 

1216
00:45:39,970 --> 00:45:41,914
hundreds for the number of nuclear 

1217
00:45:41,914 --> 00:45:44,280
warheads . Uh uh that it says are 

1218
00:45:44,290 --> 00:45:46,300
operational and he wants to clarify 

1219
00:45:46,300 --> 00:45:48,910
whether by operational , this means 

1220
00:45:48,910 --> 00:45:51,021
ready to launch right away or whether 

1221
00:45:51,021 --> 00:45:54,620
these air capable of being assembled on , 

1222
00:45:54,620 --> 00:45:57,450
then deployed , you know , at at some 

1223
00:45:57,450 --> 00:46:00,480
time horizon . So how does how should 

1224
00:46:00,480 --> 00:46:02,480
we read the word operational in the 

1225
00:46:02,480 --> 00:46:05,120
report this year ? You know , I don't 

1226
00:46:05,120 --> 00:46:07,240
recall . I think we refer to it as a 

1227
00:46:07,240 --> 00:46:08,962
component of their stockpile . 

1228
00:46:08,962 --> 00:46:10,740
Certainly there's some that are 

1229
00:46:10,740 --> 00:46:12,740
operational to some stand . I'm not 

1230
00:46:12,740 --> 00:46:14,462
exactly sure , but the precise 

1231
00:46:14,462 --> 00:46:16,629
definition of that so I will stay away 

1232
00:46:16,629 --> 00:46:18,629
from that in terms of specificity . 

1233
00:46:18,629 --> 00:46:20,796
That question , I'm certain I can't go 

1234
00:46:20,796 --> 00:46:22,962
into much greater detail to that . But 

1235
00:46:22,962 --> 00:46:25,073
I can say is that that's an aspect of 

1236
00:46:25,073 --> 00:46:27,296
what we pursue for greater transparency 

1237
00:46:27,296 --> 00:46:29,462
from the from the Pele in particular , 

1238
00:46:29,462 --> 00:46:31,684
and China writ large , which is , it is 

1239
00:46:31,684 --> 00:46:33,962
time for us to talk about these issues , 

1240
00:46:33,962 --> 00:46:36,073
particularly with what we've reported 

1241
00:46:36,073 --> 00:46:38,240
on and understand is their aspirations 

1242
00:46:38,240 --> 00:46:40,462
and will seek that they do . So There's 

1243
00:46:40,462 --> 00:46:42,518
other facets beyond just the numbers 

1244
00:46:42,518 --> 00:46:41,530
themselves or even the 

1245
00:46:41,530 --> 00:46:44,060
operationalization . There's there's 

1246
00:46:44,060 --> 00:46:46,227
critical aspects of , Well , you would 

1247
00:46:46,227 --> 00:46:47,782
refer to his co mingling or 

1248
00:46:47,782 --> 00:46:50,004
entanglement of nuclear and non nuclear 

1249
00:46:50,004 --> 00:46:52,630
system that really vital that we begin 

1250
00:46:52,630 --> 00:46:55,890
to address with the Chinese . Um , 

1251
00:46:56,260 --> 00:46:58,482
and we certainly have plans in the near 

1252
00:46:58,482 --> 00:47:01,940
term to raise that with him . Another 

1253
00:47:01,950 --> 00:47:05,430
question along similar lines is from 

1254
00:47:05,430 --> 00:47:07,990
Tony Kvasha at Bloomberg , and he wants 

1255
00:47:07,990 --> 00:47:10,710
to know a little bit more about the Jin 

1256
00:47:10,710 --> 00:47:13,400
class . Nuclear deterrence patrols it . 

1257
00:47:13,410 --> 00:47:15,470
These are mentioned in the report . 

1258
00:47:15,470 --> 00:47:18,160
Obviously , the report says that in 

1259
00:47:18,160 --> 00:47:20,160
order to hit the continental United 

1260
00:47:20,160 --> 00:47:22,271
States that have toe someone close to 

1261
00:47:22,271 --> 00:47:26,260
Hawaii on DSO , Tony's question is , uh , 

1262
00:47:26,300 --> 00:47:28,300
can you say anything publicly about 

1263
00:47:28,300 --> 00:47:30,522
whether the feel like Navy has actually 

1264
00:47:30,522 --> 00:47:32,744
started any of those nuclear deterrence 

1265
00:47:32,744 --> 00:47:34,967
patrols and whether they do , in fact , 

1266
00:47:34,967 --> 00:47:37,078
sail close enough to Hawaii that they 

1267
00:47:37,078 --> 00:47:40,300
could be operational ? Yeah , I really 

1268
00:47:40,300 --> 00:47:42,467
can't speak to that issue on this four 

1269
00:47:42,490 --> 00:47:44,710
year . The report . I think it's gonna 

1270
00:47:44,710 --> 00:47:46,710
have to stand for itself . But what 

1271
00:47:46,710 --> 00:47:48,710
What's in there right now ? I can't 

1272
00:47:48,710 --> 00:47:50,821
elaborate . Pass that . Certainly the 

1273
00:47:50,821 --> 00:47:53,043
genesis . Something that does go to see 

1274
00:47:53,043 --> 00:47:54,877
from time to time and what their 

1275
00:47:54,877 --> 00:47:56,988
capacities are and how they're loaded 

1276
00:47:56,988 --> 00:47:58,988
out on . But the readiness is it is 

1277
00:47:58,988 --> 00:47:58,770
just not something I can dive into too 

1278
00:47:58,780 --> 00:48:01,090
deeply . Yeah , I completely understand 

1279
00:48:01,090 --> 00:48:03,390
that . Um , and then one more on 

1280
00:48:03,400 --> 00:48:05,567
missiles . I think this is really more 

1281
00:48:05,567 --> 00:48:08,270
about you know what the Defense 

1282
00:48:08,270 --> 00:48:11,100
Department puts out in the public view . 

1283
00:48:11,100 --> 00:48:13,380
This is from Musashi Murano over at the 

1284
00:48:13,380 --> 00:48:16,300
Hudson Institute . Hey knows that there 

1285
00:48:16,300 --> 00:48:18,990
used to be an upper limit on the number 

1286
00:48:19,000 --> 00:48:21,700
of missiles in the China Military Power 

1287
00:48:21,700 --> 00:48:24,140
report on , uh , this year . That's 

1288
00:48:24,150 --> 00:48:26,372
obviously transitioned for those of you 

1289
00:48:26,372 --> 00:48:28,539
that I've had a chance to look at it . 

1290
00:48:28,539 --> 00:48:31,120
So rather than providing a range , it 

1291
00:48:31,130 --> 00:48:33,980
gives ah , lower bound , but not an 

1292
00:48:33,980 --> 00:48:37,930
upper bound on dso Musashi . Murano is 

1293
00:48:37,930 --> 00:48:40,340
wondering if you can say anything about 

1294
00:48:40,340 --> 00:48:42,284
sort of what the the logic of this 

1295
00:48:42,284 --> 00:48:46,280
change was . And then , ah , is it 

1296
00:48:46,280 --> 00:48:49,240
possible that d o . D . Assesses that 

1297
00:48:49,240 --> 00:48:51,240
the Chinese are actually retiring a 

1298
00:48:51,240 --> 00:48:53,960
certain number of Egypt missiles so 

1299
00:48:53,960 --> 00:48:56,320
that they can have ah , more ready 

1300
00:48:56,320 --> 00:48:59,860
force of more modernized missiles . I 

1301
00:48:59,870 --> 00:49:01,981
appreciate that numbers . Obviously , 

1302
00:49:01,981 --> 00:49:03,981
there's a lot of numbers across the 

1303
00:49:03,981 --> 00:49:06,037
entirety report accounting practices 

1304
00:49:06,037 --> 00:49:08,092
for how we count things , you know , 

1305
00:49:08,092 --> 00:49:10,203
that could be It's often a subjective 

1306
00:49:10,203 --> 00:49:12,610
rather than objective process . We did 

1307
00:49:12,610 --> 00:49:14,721
change the practice where we did that 

1308
00:49:14,721 --> 00:49:16,888
this year . There was multiple reasons 

1309
00:49:16,888 --> 00:49:18,943
for that . One of the instincts here 

1310
00:49:18,943 --> 00:49:20,999
was too broad , the greatest clarity 

1311
00:49:20,999 --> 00:49:20,680
and accuracy of the report that we 

1312
00:49:20,680 --> 00:49:23,670
possibly could , um , in terms of 

1313
00:49:23,670 --> 00:49:26,280
retirement , retiring systems . I'll 

1314
00:49:26,280 --> 00:49:28,447
tell you , I thought my head . I don't 

1315
00:49:28,447 --> 00:49:30,447
recall that that might be something 

1316
00:49:30,447 --> 00:49:32,470
I'll have toe reengage on specific 

1317
00:49:32,590 --> 00:49:35,390
aspects . I don't believe that that's 

1318
00:49:35,620 --> 00:49:39,170
the case , although there have been 

1319
00:49:39,170 --> 00:49:41,392
some very older model that they believe 

1320
00:49:41,392 --> 00:49:43,392
that they're starting to do . But I 

1321
00:49:43,392 --> 00:49:45,559
gotta say , I'm getting into territory 

1322
00:49:45,559 --> 00:49:47,726
that I don't have great certainly on , 

1323
00:49:47,726 --> 00:49:49,781
So we'll have to We'll have to reset 

1324
00:49:49,781 --> 00:49:52,114
after a different time . Please do that , 

1325
00:49:52,114 --> 00:49:54,320
Um , and , uh , over to a couple of 

1326
00:49:54,320 --> 00:49:56,431
questions that a number of folks have 

1327
00:49:56,431 --> 00:49:58,960
asked about China's maritime buildup . 

1328
00:49:58,960 --> 00:50:01,127
So one thing that really sticks out in 

1329
00:50:01,127 --> 00:50:02,904
the report is that early on the 

1330
00:50:02,904 --> 00:50:05,040
document notes that China now has the 

1331
00:50:05,040 --> 00:50:07,740
largest navy in the world . Last year's 

1332
00:50:07,740 --> 00:50:09,740
document said China had the largest 

1333
00:50:09,740 --> 00:50:12,850
navy in the region , and , you know , I 

1334
00:50:12,850 --> 00:50:14,961
don't think it's necessarily that the 

1335
00:50:14,961 --> 00:50:17,072
numbers have changed a huge amount on 

1336
00:50:17,072 --> 00:50:19,072
the Chinese side if you actually go 

1337
00:50:19,072 --> 00:50:21,239
towards the back and look at the naval 

1338
00:50:21,239 --> 00:50:23,690
numbers . But the report notes that 

1339
00:50:23,700 --> 00:50:26,110
China now feels the feeling Navy feels 

1340
00:50:26,110 --> 00:50:29,030
350 ships compared to the US Navy's to 

1341
00:50:29,030 --> 00:50:32,520
93 . Um , and yet at the same time , 

1342
00:50:32,520 --> 00:50:34,687
you know , there's a lot of discussion 

1343
00:50:34,687 --> 00:50:36,853
in public about , uh , whether Chinese 

1344
00:50:36,853 --> 00:50:39,076
leaders might be restrained by the fact 

1345
00:50:39,076 --> 00:50:41,131
that they haven't fought a major war 

1346
00:50:41,131 --> 00:50:43,131
and decades and don't have a lot of 

1347
00:50:43,131 --> 00:50:45,380
experience doing so . And I'm wondering 

1348
00:50:45,380 --> 00:50:47,750
if you can say anything about whether 

1349
00:50:47,750 --> 00:50:50,340
that fact plays a restraining role , at 

1350
00:50:50,340 --> 00:50:52,780
least in your view , on the Chinese 

1351
00:50:52,780 --> 00:50:55,002
leadership's willingness to use force . 

1352
00:50:56,030 --> 00:50:58,560
Yeah , uh , two great questions both 

1353
00:50:58,570 --> 00:51:01,430
linked . I think I'll start with your 

1354
00:51:01,430 --> 00:51:03,486
Ladder one . First . I'll begin with 

1355
00:51:03,486 --> 00:51:05,763
the number one , which is we do report , 

1356
00:51:05,763 --> 00:51:07,763
I think , actually , about what the 

1357
00:51:07,763 --> 00:51:09,708
Chinese numbers are and what their 

1358
00:51:09,708 --> 00:51:12,041
growth that looks like ad in the future , 

1359
00:51:12,041 --> 00:51:14,263
which is an increase . Certainly , I'll 

1360
00:51:14,263 --> 00:51:16,374
note that this year the Chinese again 

1361
00:51:16,374 --> 00:51:15,700
increased their defense budget , 

1362
00:51:16,670 --> 00:51:18,448
telling us that they still have 

1363
00:51:18,448 --> 00:51:20,559
aspirations for those to grow and not 

1364
00:51:20,559 --> 00:51:23,180
least of which is the Pilates capacity , 

1365
00:51:23,190 --> 00:51:25,600
particularly delayed Navy . And they're 

1366
00:51:25,650 --> 00:51:27,817
there supporting almost feeling Marine 

1367
00:51:27,817 --> 00:51:30,080
Corps's requirements to have greater 

1368
00:51:30,490 --> 00:51:32,490
far seas or global power projection 

1369
00:51:32,490 --> 00:51:34,657
capacity . So those those numbers will 

1370
00:51:34,657 --> 00:51:36,823
likely increase . And we estimate that 

1371
00:51:36,823 --> 00:51:39,046
they will , of course , numbers air one 

1372
00:51:39,046 --> 00:51:40,823
element . That's not all of the 

1373
00:51:40,823 --> 00:51:43,046
elements . There's tonnage , capacity , 

1374
00:51:43,046 --> 00:51:45,046
capability sets sophistication on a 

1375
00:51:45,046 --> 00:51:47,212
whole range of other kind of logistics 

1376
00:51:47,212 --> 00:51:49,700
communication aspects of that . So , of 

1377
00:51:49,700 --> 00:51:51,756
course , the cautions always numbers 

1378
00:51:51,756 --> 00:51:53,867
air one element , not the entirety of 

1379
00:51:53,867 --> 00:51:55,950
the element . I can't speak to us 

1380
00:51:55,950 --> 00:51:58,117
forces that those air things that will 

1381
00:51:58,117 --> 00:52:00,172
come out and discussions between the 

1382
00:52:00,172 --> 00:52:02,506
departments and certainly the secretary . 

1383
00:52:02,506 --> 00:52:04,617
But this report obviously is intended 

1384
00:52:04,617 --> 00:52:07,460
to help inform that discussion . So the 

1385
00:52:07,470 --> 00:52:09,081
deepest investing , clearest 

1386
00:52:09,081 --> 00:52:11,137
understanding that we have should be 

1387
00:52:11,250 --> 00:52:13,083
for That's one of the reasons we 

1388
00:52:13,083 --> 00:52:15,083
provide this to Congress so that we 

1389
00:52:15,083 --> 00:52:16,972
could help have those discussions 

1390
00:52:16,972 --> 00:52:18,861
across all elements of the United 

1391
00:52:18,861 --> 00:52:20,972
States government in terms of as they 

1392
00:52:20,972 --> 00:52:23,139
go forward and out in the future , and 

1393
00:52:23,139 --> 00:52:25,370
particularly on our more global scale 

1394
00:52:26,290 --> 00:52:28,457
that that remains a critical element . 

1395
00:52:28,457 --> 00:52:30,623
This is highly consistent with Chinese 

1396
00:52:30,623 --> 00:52:32,790
military strategy and its concepts and 

1397
00:52:32,790 --> 00:52:34,568
teaching about its own military 

1398
00:52:34,568 --> 00:52:36,790
strategy . They have a very unique , in 

1399
00:52:36,790 --> 00:52:38,734
fact , very specific definition of 

1400
00:52:38,734 --> 00:52:40,623
active defense itself of what the 

1401
00:52:40,623 --> 00:52:42,846
purpose of their military strategy is . 

1402
00:52:42,846 --> 00:52:45,430
They referred to that as the's . As you 

1403
00:52:45,430 --> 00:52:48,520
know , these . These constraints on the 

1404
00:52:48,620 --> 00:52:50,910
really in China logic , which is the 

1405
00:52:50,910 --> 00:52:53,300
dialectic , is a requirement on one 

1406
00:52:53,300 --> 00:52:55,760
hand to safeguard its national 

1407
00:52:55,760 --> 00:52:57,871
interests and on the other hand , not 

1408
00:52:57,871 --> 00:52:59,649
do so in a manner that would be 

1409
00:52:59,649 --> 00:53:01,371
catastrophic towards long term 

1410
00:53:01,371 --> 00:53:03,371
aspirations . I don't I don't think 

1411
00:53:03,371 --> 00:53:05,593
that's an unusual constraint on any use 

1412
00:53:05,593 --> 00:53:07,816
of force by any leader anywhere but for 

1413
00:53:07,816 --> 00:53:07,770
the Chinese themselves . They call it 

1414
00:53:07,770 --> 00:53:09,492
the dialectical unity of war , 

1415
00:53:09,492 --> 00:53:11,437
restricted more winning and always 

1416
00:53:11,437 --> 00:53:13,270
having to make sure that they're 

1417
00:53:13,270 --> 00:53:15,159
calculating about how you balance 

1418
00:53:15,159 --> 00:53:17,381
between those two things that I talk to 

1419
00:53:17,381 --> 00:53:19,437
the Chinese . Their current military 

1420
00:53:19,437 --> 00:53:21,659
strategy includes at their 2019 defence 

1421
00:53:21,659 --> 00:53:23,881
White paper express that as I've talked 

1422
00:53:23,881 --> 00:53:26,600
to him and when I talked about their 

1423
00:53:26,610 --> 00:53:28,499
their near term military strategy 

1424
00:53:28,499 --> 00:53:31,630
reforms or reformation . They they've 

1425
00:53:32,110 --> 00:53:35,100
they've communicated that they find 

1426
00:53:35,100 --> 00:53:37,500
that will remain a consistent aspect of 

1427
00:53:37,500 --> 00:53:39,333
Halle to find their own military 

1428
00:53:39,333 --> 00:53:41,278
strategies in their use of force , 

1429
00:53:41,278 --> 00:53:43,389
which is there's to be bound by those 

1430
00:53:43,389 --> 00:53:45,333
two conditions . So I think that's 

1431
00:53:45,333 --> 00:53:45,150
informative when you understand about 

1432
00:53:45,150 --> 00:53:47,206
how the Chinese make and think about 

1433
00:53:47,206 --> 00:53:49,317
the use of force , which is always in 

1434
00:53:49,317 --> 00:53:51,428
that context , the degree to which it 

1435
00:53:51,428 --> 00:53:53,594
might result in a permanent loss of an 

1436
00:53:53,594 --> 00:53:55,880
as the strategic national interest or 

1437
00:53:55,880 --> 00:53:58,740
objective set political objective , but 

1438
00:53:58,740 --> 00:54:01,510
also the degree to which it might 

1439
00:54:01,520 --> 00:54:03,187
ultimately distract or have a 

1440
00:54:03,187 --> 00:54:05,187
catastrophic effect on China's long 

1441
00:54:05,187 --> 00:54:07,353
from national aspirations . But you're 

1442
00:54:07,353 --> 00:54:09,520
right now prioritized on developmental 

1443
00:54:09,520 --> 00:54:12,900
issues . Great . Um , and then another 

1444
00:54:12,900 --> 00:54:14,956
question . Talking about an issue we 

1445
00:54:14,956 --> 00:54:17,122
haven't discussed yet , which is space 

1446
00:54:17,122 --> 00:54:19,870
from Jack Mayer at the Washington Free 

1447
00:54:19,870 --> 00:54:21,926
Beacon ? He asked , Could you talk a 

1448
00:54:21,926 --> 00:54:23,926
little bit more about China's space 

1449
00:54:23,926 --> 00:54:25,759
capabilities and their long term 

1450
00:54:25,759 --> 00:54:28,650
trajectory in terms of their strategic 

1451
00:54:28,650 --> 00:54:30,820
and economic interests in space ? 

1452
00:54:32,740 --> 00:54:35,850
Yeah , I can . It's Ah , um , this is 

1453
00:54:35,850 --> 00:54:37,961
going to begin to sound like a little 

1454
00:54:37,961 --> 00:54:41,190
bit of a repeating record , and but But 

1455
00:54:41,190 --> 00:54:44,080
I think that's important , which is you 

1456
00:54:44,080 --> 00:54:46,080
know when you listen to the Chinese 

1457
00:54:46,080 --> 00:54:47,969
Communist leadership degree , She 

1458
00:54:47,969 --> 00:54:50,302
Jinping , who serves as the Chinese say , 

1459
00:54:50,302 --> 00:54:53,560
is the core of the party . He's . He's 

1460
00:54:53,560 --> 00:54:55,790
outlined very specific requirements and 

1461
00:54:55,790 --> 00:54:58,110
expectations he has in multiple areas 

1462
00:54:58,110 --> 00:55:00,770
and domains . We raised about the 

1463
00:55:00,770 --> 00:55:02,940
Chinese aspiration for achieving 

1464
00:55:02,940 --> 00:55:05,360
maritime great power status . He's done 

1465
00:55:05,360 --> 00:55:07,638
the same in terms of having AH , space , 

1466
00:55:07,638 --> 00:55:10,330
great power status . And that's being a 

1467
00:55:10,330 --> 00:55:12,441
space great power by every measurable 

1468
00:55:12,890 --> 00:55:14,779
yardstick that you can throw up . 

1469
00:55:14,779 --> 00:55:16,946
They're not least of which is capacity 

1470
00:55:16,946 --> 00:55:18,779
for the military . This includes 

1471
00:55:18,779 --> 00:55:20,779
enhanced communication , tracking , 

1472
00:55:20,779 --> 00:55:22,723
surveillance , eyes , our research 

1473
00:55:22,723 --> 00:55:25,650
exploration , every facet that's 

1474
00:55:25,650 --> 00:55:27,761
interlinked , not only with the space 

1475
00:55:27,761 --> 00:55:29,817
based capabilities that you that you 

1476
00:55:29,817 --> 00:55:31,928
think about every day in terms of how 

1477
00:55:31,928 --> 00:55:34,039
you would apply those , but also as a 

1478
00:55:34,039 --> 00:55:36,261
critical element of attaining what they 

1479
00:55:36,261 --> 00:55:38,840
call it a technological great power 

1480
00:55:38,840 --> 00:55:41,160
status , which is to being in the most 

1481
00:55:41,160 --> 00:55:42,940
advanced fields and seizing the 

1482
00:55:42,940 --> 00:55:45,420
technological high ground are seizing 

1483
00:55:45,430 --> 00:55:47,320
dance Kate high ground in advance 

1484
00:55:47,320 --> 00:55:49,376
capabilities , which they think that 

1485
00:55:49,376 --> 00:55:51,098
that will give them a national 

1486
00:55:51,098 --> 00:55:53,153
advantage . Spaces certain essential 

1487
00:55:53,153 --> 00:55:55,320
tonight there's other fields . I don't 

1488
00:55:55,320 --> 00:55:57,487
think spaces any lower on the priority 

1489
00:55:57,487 --> 00:55:59,542
than any anything else it's a it's a 

1490
00:55:59,542 --> 00:55:59,390
top priority for them . They see that 

1491
00:55:59,390 --> 00:56:01,350
as a critical advantage , and it's 

1492
00:56:01,350 --> 00:56:03,183
always a good reminder . I think 

1493
00:56:03,183 --> 00:56:05,350
certainly when we talk about it within 

1494
00:56:05,350 --> 00:56:07,406
the department itself is is that you 

1495
00:56:07,406 --> 00:56:09,628
know , those are choices that countries 

1496
00:56:09,628 --> 00:56:11,683
have to make those air technological 

1497
00:56:11,683 --> 00:56:13,406
choices . They certainly bring 

1498
00:56:13,406 --> 00:56:15,183
advantages . There's also bring 

1499
00:56:15,183 --> 00:56:17,370
disadvantages . Those air huge costs . 

1500
00:56:17,370 --> 00:56:19,592
That's huge . Intellectual investment , 

1501
00:56:19,920 --> 00:56:21,570
bureaucratic organization , 

1502
00:56:21,610 --> 00:56:23,910
transformation of organizations intent 

1503
00:56:24,850 --> 00:56:26,670
its capital investments , time 

1504
00:56:26,670 --> 00:56:28,726
investments , prestige , investments 

1505
00:56:28,860 --> 00:56:30,971
they made in . They've chosen to make 

1506
00:56:30,971 --> 00:56:33,138
those investments , and they've chosen 

1507
00:56:33,138 --> 00:56:35,082
for a reason , which is that their 

1508
00:56:35,082 --> 00:56:37,304
aspirations are not small . They're not 

1509
00:56:37,304 --> 00:56:39,527
moderated . They're not . I don't think 

1510
00:56:39,527 --> 00:56:41,582
the Chinese air settling on becoming 

1511
00:56:41,582 --> 00:56:43,527
just one off . They do have a very 

1512
00:56:43,527 --> 00:56:45,527
clear and definitive aspiration for 

1513
00:56:45,527 --> 00:56:47,400
becoming , ah , global power , 

1514
00:56:47,400 --> 00:56:50,220
preeminent , by all measures O r . At 

1515
00:56:50,220 --> 00:56:52,498
least in terms of status to any others . 

1516
00:56:52,498 --> 00:56:55,060
And space is not the not the least of 

1517
00:56:55,060 --> 00:56:57,282
that . So I know that's why not . Great 

1518
00:56:57,282 --> 00:56:59,449
death , I can tell you is I don't have 

1519
00:56:59,449 --> 00:57:01,504
off the top . I have a role index of 

1520
00:57:01,504 --> 00:57:03,671
all the different satellite capacities 

1521
00:57:03,671 --> 00:57:05,893
that the Chinese air producing or space 

1522
00:57:05,893 --> 00:57:08,116
based capabilities , but it's it's self 

1523
00:57:08,116 --> 00:57:08,100
evident . Watching what they're doing 

1524
00:57:08,100 --> 00:57:10,660
in terms of their exploration 

1525
00:57:10,660 --> 00:57:12,771
capacities is some things to the moon 

1526
00:57:12,771 --> 00:57:15,050
and then the other commercial and 

1527
00:57:15,050 --> 00:57:18,630
military aspects 

1528
00:57:18,630 --> 00:57:21,000
of space activities . It's not 

1529
00:57:21,000 --> 00:57:22,690
insignificant , and it's it's 

1530
00:57:25,390 --> 00:57:27,279
not gonna go away any time soon . 

1531
00:57:28,710 --> 00:57:30,930
Waterfall . OK , we've just about 

1532
00:57:30,930 --> 00:57:32,986
restart endpoint , but I want to ask 

1533
00:57:32,986 --> 00:57:34,986
you one final question because it's 

1534
00:57:34,986 --> 00:57:36,986
gotten so much attention recently . 

1535
00:57:36,986 --> 00:57:39,208
This is from Adams over at the Voice of 

1536
00:57:39,208 --> 00:57:41,374
America , and he asked , How would you 

1537
00:57:41,374 --> 00:57:43,910
assess the delays ? Infiltration of 

1538
00:57:43,910 --> 00:57:46,730
universities outside of China ? Of 

1539
00:57:46,730 --> 00:57:49,730
course , Onda . How is duty working 

1540
00:57:49,730 --> 00:57:52,340
with US research institutes and others ? 

1541
00:57:52,530 --> 00:57:54,750
Uh , toe handle this issue ? There's 

1542
00:57:54,760 --> 00:57:56,927
there's been a lot of press about this 

1543
00:57:56,927 --> 00:57:58,982
recently , and I know you know , the 

1544
00:57:58,982 --> 00:58:00,982
Department of Justice appears to be 

1545
00:58:00,982 --> 00:58:03,149
doing a lot of work on this issue . Is 

1546
00:58:03,149 --> 00:58:05,149
there anything that you can tell us 

1547
00:58:05,149 --> 00:58:07,482
about about this before we close ? Yeah , 

1548
00:58:07,482 --> 00:58:09,649
I will . A You know , I mentioned some 

1549
00:58:09,649 --> 00:58:11,482
of the economic actions that the 

1550
00:58:11,482 --> 00:58:13,649
entirety of United States government , 

1551
00:58:13,649 --> 00:58:13,130
particularly the inter agency , has 

1552
00:58:13,130 --> 00:58:15,074
taken , and this is another one of 

1553
00:58:15,074 --> 00:58:17,130
those fields . So in concert through 

1554
00:58:17,130 --> 00:58:19,297
the interagency , really coordinated , 

1555
00:58:19,297 --> 00:58:21,241
obviously by the national Security 

1556
00:58:21,241 --> 00:58:23,408
staff is identifying and understanding 

1557
00:58:23,408 --> 00:58:25,630
where threats and risks are , where the 

1558
00:58:25,630 --> 00:58:27,741
challenges of what we face and really 

1559
00:58:27,741 --> 00:58:27,410
for a long time it's not necessarily . 

1560
00:58:27,410 --> 00:58:29,521
We didn't know these things are going 

1561
00:58:29,521 --> 00:58:31,577
on . We just weren't actually taking 

1562
00:58:31,577 --> 00:58:33,521
specific action . So that's what's 

1563
00:58:33,521 --> 00:58:35,354
happened . The national security 

1564
00:58:35,354 --> 00:58:37,466
strategy , the guidance and direction 

1565
00:58:37,466 --> 00:58:39,521
from the White House and the sort of 

1566
00:58:39,521 --> 00:58:41,466
national security staff is . We've 

1567
00:58:41,466 --> 00:58:43,688
gotten on these tasks , and it's a very 

1568
00:58:43,688 --> 00:58:45,966
robust and very comprehensive elements . 

1569
00:58:45,966 --> 00:58:48,077
So again , it's not necessarily a new 

1570
00:58:48,077 --> 00:58:50,243
ship . Our new tank , but certainly in 

1571
00:58:50,243 --> 00:58:52,188
terms of policy practice is one of 

1572
00:58:52,188 --> 00:58:52,120
those things we have undertaken and 

1573
00:58:52,120 --> 00:58:54,530
within the department itself , mostly 

1574
00:58:54,530 --> 00:58:57,660
through acquisition and sustainability , 

1575
00:58:57,810 --> 00:58:59,643
and the research and engineering 

1576
00:58:59,643 --> 00:59:01,699
elements have identified where there 

1577
00:59:01,699 --> 00:59:03,866
might be . Either Krugel risks , too , 

1578
00:59:03,866 --> 00:59:06,400
uh , supply chain issues within the 

1579
00:59:06,400 --> 00:59:08,790
department or even within the research 

1580
00:59:08,790 --> 00:59:10,957
organization . Those take balances and 

1581
00:59:10,957 --> 00:59:13,012
choices that we have to make . We're 

1582
00:59:13,012 --> 00:59:15,123
doing those in conjunction with other 

1583
00:59:15,123 --> 00:59:17,234
elements that Department of Justice , 

1584
00:59:17,234 --> 00:59:19,234
State and others in terms of how we 

1585
00:59:19,234 --> 00:59:19,180
react to that , and we're trying to 

1586
00:59:19,180 --> 00:59:21,291
make sure that we find a good balance 

1587
00:59:21,291 --> 00:59:23,513
between ensuring that the activities of 

1588
00:59:23,513 --> 00:59:25,180
anybody any of these research 

1589
00:59:25,180 --> 00:59:26,847
organizations air through the 

1590
00:59:26,847 --> 00:59:29,124
universities is properly accounted for , 

1591
00:59:29,124 --> 00:59:31,790
understood on and watched , monitored 

1592
00:59:31,790 --> 00:59:34,080
very carefully and that they don't have 

1593
00:59:34,080 --> 00:59:36,247
a critical aspect that might provide , 

1594
00:59:36,320 --> 00:59:39,670
um uh , undesirable insights to what 

1595
00:59:39,670 --> 00:59:41,726
the Department of Defense is doing . 

1596
00:59:41,726 --> 00:59:43,948
But I'll tell you , we're all over it . 

1597
00:59:44,500 --> 00:59:46,556
Fantastic . Well , thank you so much 

1598
00:59:46,556 --> 00:59:49,330
for your time . I want toe provide 33 

1599
00:59:49,330 --> 00:59:51,497
big thank you's for this event . First 

1600
00:59:51,497 --> 00:59:53,740
is for the audience for joining us on 

1601
00:59:53,740 --> 00:59:56,018
for asking so many excellent questions , 

1602
00:59:56,018 --> 00:59:58,073
and I will apologize that there were 

1603
00:59:58,073 --> 01:00:00,240
many more that we were not able to get 

1604
01:00:00,240 --> 01:00:02,770
to . The second is to our x pm it ai on 

1605
01:00:02,770 --> 01:00:04,826
yours with Pentagon for putting this 

1606
01:00:04,826 --> 01:00:06,714
all together . I know it's a huge 

1607
01:00:06,714 --> 01:00:08,881
amount of work easier for us to do the 

1608
01:00:08,881 --> 01:00:10,770
video than it is for your team to 

1609
01:00:10,770 --> 01:00:12,826
actually write the 200 page report . 

1610
01:00:12,826 --> 01:00:14,881
But we're really happy to be able to 

1611
01:00:14,881 --> 01:00:17,159
join you for this rollout . And lastly , 

1612
01:00:17,159 --> 01:00:19,381
thank you , Chad , for joining us today 

1613
01:00:19,381 --> 01:00:21,603
and for talking so thoroughly about all 

1614
01:00:21,603 --> 01:00:23,770
of these issues . We really appreciate 

1615
01:00:23,770 --> 01:00:25,659
it , and I hope you stay safe and 

1616
01:00:25,659 --> 01:00:27,826
healthy and best wishes to everyone on 

1617
01:00:27,826 --> 01:00:30,870
the call going ahead Zack . Thank you . 

1618
01:00:30,880 --> 01:00:32,936
I'll certainly I come . I appreciate 

1619
01:00:32,936 --> 01:00:35,158
appreciation to you . All the staff you 

1620
01:00:35,158 --> 01:00:37,213
have there , ai all the participants 

1621
01:00:37,213 --> 01:00:39,380
itself . Well , it would be wrong of a 

1622
01:00:39,380 --> 01:00:41,580
I didn't highlight the role of the 

1623
01:00:41,580 --> 01:00:43,802
defense Intelligence enterprise and the 

1624
01:00:43,802 --> 01:00:45,913
others around the department here and 

1625
01:00:45,913 --> 01:00:47,913
producing the report . You see , my 

1626
01:00:47,913 --> 01:00:50,136
face , but it's really their work . And 

1627
01:00:50,136 --> 01:00:52,302
I encourage you to read it , Others to 

1628
01:00:52,302 --> 01:00:54,358
read it , examine it , and certainly 

1629
01:00:54,358 --> 01:00:56,524
will try to make ourselves available . 

1630
01:00:56,524 --> 01:00:56,490
That began to help discuss it for 

1631
01:00:58,010 --> 01:01:00,066
wonderful . All right , well , thank 

1632
01:01:00,066 --> 01:01:02,288
you so much for joining us and everyone 

1633
01:01:02,288 --> 01:01:03,390
stay safe and stay healthy . Thank you .